Syria: Security situation likely to remain volatile through at least late December following fall of Assad government /update 4

The security situation in Syria will remain highly volatile through at least late December amid an ongoing rebel offensive following the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad's government. The insurgents, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have seized control of Damascus as of Dec. 8, with al-Assad and his family fleeing the country to Moscow. Damascus International Airport (DAM) has halted all flights; the facility will reportedly be closed through Dec. 18. Insurgents have implemented a curfew in Damascus until at least 05:00 Dec. 9.

The rebel advance into Damascus follows reports that Iran had begun withdrawing its military advisers. With the capture of the Syrian capital, only Latakia and Tartus governorates on the Mediterranean coast remain under the control of the Syrian government forces. Both governorates host Russian military installations; unconfirmed reports indicate that, as of late Dec. 8, Russia has begun evacuating its military personnel and materiel from Latakia and Tartus.

HTS’ military successes have fueled further resistance in other parts of Syria. As the security situation deteriorates, tensions between Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Turkish-backed groups in northeastern Syria will also probably escalate. Authorities in the so-called Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) - a Kurdish-controlled de facto self-governing region encompassing Al-Hasaka Governorate, as well as parts of Ar-Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor governorates - have declared a state of emergency effective Dec. 8. The move is in direct response to the recent developments in the country and the increasing uncertainty in the nation's security situation. AANES officials have also imposed a curfew through at least 08:00 Dec. 9 and bolstered security in areas under their jurisdiction, almost certainly including increased SDF deployments. It is unclear how long the directive will remain in force.

Border Closures
In response to security concerns, Jordanian authorities have closed the Jaber border crossing with Syria. The Iraqi border with Syria also remains closed, and Lebanon has reportedly closed all land border crossings with Syria, except for one linking Beirut and Damascus, due to repeated Israeli airstrikes. The Israeli government has heightened security along its border with Syria. Additional border closures and enhanced security measures are possible as the fighting continues.

Diplomatic Advisories
Several foreign governments issued or reiterated Syria travel advisories in early December. The US Department of State has issued a security alert advising US citizens to leave Damascus while commercial travel options remain available. The UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office has reiterated its earlier advisory urging British nationals to leave Syria by any available means. The French government also issued a statement strongly advising its nationals to depart. India’s Ministry of External Affairs has issued a similar warning advising against travel and urging nationals to leave by the earliest available commercial flights. The Chinese Embassy in Syria is recommending that Chinese nationals depart while commercial flights are still operational. Other governments have issued similar advisories; further updates are almost certain as the situation evolves.

Foreign Airstrikes
The ongoing clashes between insurgents and Syrian government forces are taking place against the backdrop of regular Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed Shi'a militias in Syria. The Israeli military will likely continue these operations in the coming weeks.

Additionally, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) is continuing is campaign of airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) as part of an ongoing effort to prevent the group from reconstituting. On Dec. 8, US bombers, fighter-bombers, and ground-attack aircraft struck at least 75 IS targets in central Syria. CENTCOM could ramp up such strikes over the coming weeks to ensure IS capabilities remain degraded.

Militant Attacks
IS, one of the most active militant groups in Syria, will probably intensify its attacks on government forces, foreigners, and civilians. Criminal activity, including kidnappings and political assassinations, will also likely increase as the security environment worsens.

Transport and Business Disruptions
The escalation of fighting between HTS and Syrian government forces will severely disrupt transport, business operations, and utilities. Airports in major cities, including Damascus, Aleppo, and Hama, will likely suspend operations until the situation stabilizes. With the rebels in control of Homs, highways linking Damascus to the coastal governorates will remain closed. Rebels could impose movement restrictive measures, including curfews, in areas under its control.