Syria: Insurgents claim to have seized Damascus as of early Dec. 8 amid ongoing offensive operations /update 3

The security situation in Syria will remain highly volatile through at least late December due to the ongoing insurgent offensive. The insurgents, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), claim to have seized control of Damascus as of early Dec. 8. Reports suggest that President Bashar al-Assad may have fled the country. Damascus International Airport (DAM) has halted all flights as of early Dec. 8.

The rebel advance into Damascus follows reports that Iran had begun withdrawing its military advisers. With the apparent capture of Damascus, only Latakia and Tartus governorates on the Mediterranean coast remain under the control of the Syrian government.

Since fighting resumed Nov. 27, clashes have resulted in the deaths of hundreds of insurgents and government-aligned military personnel. The fall of Aleppo in late November facilitated the rebel forces' rapid expansion across other major cities, including the city of Homs in central Syria, Dec. 7.

HTS’ military successes in Aleppo and Idlib have fueled further resistance in other parts of Syria. As the security situation deteriorates, tensions between Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Turkish-backed groups in northeastern Syria will also probably escalate.

Border Closures
In response to security concerns, Jordanian authorities closed the Jaber border crossing with Syria Dec. 6. The Iraqi government shut that nation's border with Syria Nov. 30, and Lebanon has reportedly closed all land border crossings with Syria, except for one linking Beirut and Damascus, due to repeated Israeli airstrikes. The Israeli government has also heightened security along its border with Syria. Additional border closures and enhanced security measures are possible as the fighting continues.

Diplomatic Advisories
Several foreign governments issued or reiterated Syria travel advisories in early December. On Dec. 6, the US Department of State issued a security alert advising US citizens to leave Damascus while commercial travel options remain available. The UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office reiterated its advisory Dec. 5, urging British nationals to leave Syria by any available means. The French government also issued a statement Dec. 7 strongly advising its nationals to depart. India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a similar warning Dec. 6, advising against travel and urging nationals to leave by the earliest available commercial flights. The Chinese Embassy in Syria stated Dec. 5, recommending that Chinese nationals depart while commercial flights are still operational. Other governments have issued similar advisories; further updates are almost certain as the situation evolves.

Israeli Airstrikes
The ongoing clashes between insurgents and Syrian government forces are taking place against the backdrop of regular Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed Shi'a militias in Syria. The Israeli military will likely continue these operations in the coming weeks.

Militant Attacks
The Islamic State (IS), one of the most active militant groups in Syria, will probably intensify its attacks on government forces, foreigners, and civilians. Criminal activity, including kidnappings and political assassinations, will also likely increase as the security environment worsens.

Transport and Business Disruptions
The escalation of fighting between HTS and Syrian government forces will severely disrupt transport, business operations, and utilities. Airports in major cities, including Damascus, Aleppo, and Hama, will likely suspend operations until the situation stabilizes. With the rebels in control of Homs, highways linking Damascus to the coastal governorates will remain closed.