07 Dec 2024 | 04:56 PM UTC
Syria: Insurgents claim to have encircled Damascus as of late Dec. 7 amid ongoing offensive operations /update 2
Increased security, transport disruptions, further clashes likely as insurgents claim to encircle Damascus, Syria, as of late Dec. 7.
The security situation in Syria will remain highly volatile through at least late December due to the ongoing insurgent offensive. Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the insurgents claim to have entered the Damascus suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana, and Daraya. Unconfirmed reports suggest that rebels have surrounded key government buildings in the Syrian capital and that President Bashar al-Assad may have fled the country. However, the Syrian Ministry of Defense has denied such claims. The rebel advance into Damascus follows reports that Iran had begun withdrawing its military advisers. Despite the their rapid progress, HTS-affiliated fighters will almost certainly continue to clash government forces loyal to Assad, potentially seizing Damascus over the coming hours or days.
Since fighting resumed on Nov. 27, hundreds of insurgents and government-aligned military personnel have been killed. The fall of Aleppo in late November facilitated rebel forces' rapid expansion across other major cities. Ongoing clashes are reported in Hama and Homs governorates, with anti-government fighters positioning to take control of Homs city. The insurgents also claim control of the As Suwayda, Quneitra, and Daraa governorates.
HTS’ military successes in Aleppo and Idlib have fueled further resistance in other parts of Syria. As the security situation deteriorates, tensions between Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Arab tribes in northeastern Syria will also probably escalate.
Border Closures
In response to security concerns, Jordanian authorities closed the Jaber border crossing with Syria on Dec. 6. The Iraqi government shut that nation's border with Syria on Nov. 30, and Lebanon has reportedly closed all land border crossings with Syria, except for one linking Beirut and Damascus, due to repeated Israeli airstrikes. The Israeli government has also heightened security along its border with Syria. Additional border closures and enhanced security measures are possible as the fighting continues.
Diplomatic Advisories
Several foreign governments have issued or reiterated travel advisories for Syria in early December. On Dec. 6, the US Department of State issued a security alert advising US citizens to leave Damascus while commercial travel options remain available. The UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office reiterated its advisory on Dec. 5, urging British nationals to leave Syria by any available means. The French government also issued a statement on Dec. 7 strongly advising its nationals to depart. India’s Ministry of External Affairs issued a similar warning on Dec. 6, advising against travel and urging nationals to leave by the earliest available commercial flights. The Chinese Embassy in Syria issued a statement on Dec. 5, recommending that Chinese nationals depart while commercial flights are still operational. Similar advisories have been issued by other governments and further updates are almost certain as the situation evolves.
Israeli Airstrikes
The ongoing clashes between insurgents and Syrian government forces are taking place against the backdrop of regular Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed Shi'a militias in Syria. The Israeli military will likely continue these operations in the coming weeks.
Militant Attacks
The Islamic State (IS), one of the most active militant groups in Syria, will probably intensify its attacks on government forces, foreigners, and civilians. Criminal activity, including kidnappings and political assassinations, is also likely to rise as the security environment worsens.
Transport and Business Disruptions
The escalation of fighting between HTS and Syrian government forces will severely disrupt transport, business operations, and utilities. Airports in Aleppo and Hama will likely suspend operations as fighting continues. Traffic disruptions are likely along major highways, including the M5 connecting Damascus and Aleppo. The insurgents have reportedly cut off this thoroughfare and seized control of the strategic M4-M5 junction, linking Aleppo to Latakia on the Mediterranean coast.
Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid conflict-impacted locations until the situation stabilizes. Avoid concentrations of security personnel and all public gatherings. Reconfirm road status if ground travel is unavoidable. Carry personal identification documents at all times. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water. Review contingency plans. Reconfirm all transport arrangements, including flights.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Organization for the Liberation of the Levant, or HTS) is a Sunni insurgent group that emerged in January 2017 by merging multiple militant and rebel factions. HTS' predecessor, Jabhat al-Nusra, was an al-Qaeda-affiliated organization formed in 2012 with the goal of overthrowing the Syrian government following the outbreak of the civil war in 2011. The UN, EU, and several countries, including the US and UK, have designated HTS a terrorist organization.
HTS' latest offensive occurs against the backdrop of the Israel-Lebanese Hizballah (LH) conflict and escalating tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran. The group likely saw the new geopolitical landscape as advantageous for its offensive, capitalizing on the preoccupation of the LH militants in Lebanon. The Syrian government will almost certainly face intense opposition and fierce fighting as it attempts to regain control of Aleppo and other areas in northwestern Syria.
