Intelligence Analysis
Global Copper Industry Unlikely to Face Severe Disruptions Despite Production Interruptions
1 APR 2025
/
4 min read

KEY TAKEAWAYS:
Chile's power outages disrupted copper production, but renewable energy plans aim to stabilize future supply.
DRC's instability may indirectly affect copper exports due to disrupted transport networks and regional infrastructure.
US tariffs on copper imports could increase production costs and disrupt global supply chains.
The global copper industry was dominated in 2024 by Chile and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and recent widespread power outages in Chile and ongoing geopolitical unrest in the DRC have therefore raised concerns about potential supply chain disruptions. Additionally, US President Donald Trump’s administration is exploring the potential implementation of tariffs on copper imports, primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico. Given the convergence of these factors, the stability of the global copper industry warrants close monitoring.
Chile: Power Outages Impact Key Copper Mines
In 2024, Chile and the DRC contributed approximately 34 percent of the world’s global copper output, producing 5.3 and 3.3 million metric tons, respectively. A nationwide power outage on Feb. 25 disrupted Chile’s copper mining industry, which is primarily located in the northern regions. During the outage, Escondida, the world’s largest copper mine, experienced production disruptions, while multiple mines belonging to state-owned Codelco at Chuquicamata, Andina, Salvador, and El Teniente were also left without power; other sites had to use backup generators to operate partially.
In the short term, severe disruptions to the global copper supply are unlikely as authorities had restored power to Chile by Feb. 26. Although adverse weather and transmission issues continue to threaten the power supply in Chile, the country plans to expand renewable energy to fulfill up to 80 percent of power needs by 2030. This should offset future demand surges driven by increased copper production.
DRC: Ongoing Instability Could Indirectly Impact Copper Exports
The ongoing conflict between the M23 rebels and government forces continues to drive insecurity in the DRC. Fighting in the eastern regions of the country likely disrupted mining operations in North and South Kivu, where minerals like coltan, cassiterite, and gold are found. However, no strong evidence suggests that the conflict directly impacted major copper mines, as they are located mainly in the southern Katanga region. However, the knock-on effects of instability in the country could disrupt transport networks and regional infrastructure, which could affect copper exports and logistics. Notably, the Lobito Corridor, an essential trade route connecting the DRC, Angola, and Zambia to global markets, remains generally unaffected by clashes.
The DRC authorities have imposed overnight curfews in Lualaba and Haut-Katanga through at least late March. These provinces are part of the DRC’s Katanga Copperbelt and contribute significantly to the DRC’s copper output. A reduction in working hours will further constrain output and potentially affect production yields.
US Tariffs and Potential Impacts on the Copper Industry
The Trump administration aims to address concerns about protecting US domestic copper production, overcapacity, and dumping, and has announced potential tariffs on copper imports. In 2024, the US consumed approximately 1.6 million tons of refined copper, out of which close to 800,000 tons were imported from Chile, Canada, and Mexico.
Although implementing tariffs will likely boost US domestic production, it would increase the overall cost of production for US industries reliant on copper. Given copper’s critical role in advanced manufacturing and industrial applications, sectors such as electric vehicles, electronics, renewables, military hardware, and semiconductors may face production disruptions due to increased costs, which would likely be passed on to consumers as price increases. Moreover, key US trading partners could also engage in their own retaliatory trade measures. Consequent uncertainties in the global market may also cause copper suppliers to redirect their supplies to other countries, which could lead to an oversupply in markets outside of the US.
Outlook
In the short term, a temporary cost increase in copper production is possible due to the ongoing infrastructure issues in Chile and uncertain geopolitical situation in the DRC. However, these issues are unlikely to cause protracted supply chain disruptions. The imposition of US tariffs could prompt major copper exporters to redirect their supply to alternative markets, such as China, India, and the EU. Countries with strong industrial demand, such as China – particularly in its electric vehicle sector – could take advantage of lower prices to secure additional raw materials. In the medium-to-long term, the US could disrupt global copper supply chains via tariffs, potentially impacting manufacturers, accelerating global trade realignment, and encouraging strategic investments in downstream copper-related industries.
Learn more about leveraging our industry-leading regional and subject matter experts for intelligence that helps your organization stay ahead of risks to your people and operations.
Related
Sharpen your
view of risk
Subscribe to our newsletter to receive our analysts’ latest insights in your inbox every week.
Intelligence & Insights
Intelligence
Worth Gathering
Employing a team of 200+ analysts around the world, Crisis24 is the only source you need for on-point, actionable insights on any risk-related topic.

Intelligence Analysis
Powerful 7.7-Magnitude Earthquake Strikes Myanmar; Tremors Felt Across the Region
A powerful earthquake hit Myanmar on March 28, with tremors felt across several countries, including Thailand and China.
March 28, 2025

Intelligence Analysis
Security and Operational Risks from Organized Cybercrime Operations Likely to Persist in Southeast Asia
The proliferation of transnational organized cybercrime operations in Southeast Asia will likely continue to pose personal security and operational risks for businesses and travelers in the region over the medium term.
March 25, 2025

Article
AI: Markers Along the Inflection Path
Security practitioners must balance AI-driven automation with human intelligence, ensure compliance with evolving AI regulations, and monitor geopolitical risks tied to AI adoption.
By Chris Hurst
March 20, 2025

Article
How to Strengthen Organizational Resilience During an IT Outage
A mass notification system enables organizations to achieve operational resilience, keeping employees informed and customers engaged even when primary communication systems fail.
By Ann Pickren
March 12, 2025