Venezuela: Opposition to hold straw poll July 16 /update 2

Event

The government and the opposition are planning to hold nationwide polls on Sunday, July 16. Opposition leaders will hold a straw poll to judge support for the proposed constituent assembly through thousands of polling centers. The government is also expected to hold a dry run of the planned July 30 constituent assembly elections. According to the United States Embassy in Caracas, polling sites will be open between 07:00 to 16:00 (local time). The US Embassy announced that all personnel are restricted to their residential areas in Valle Arriba and Santa Fe during this time and warned US citizens to avoid any polling stations. Protests by opposition and pro-government supporters may occur, and clashes between demonstrators and security forces are likely.

Context

At least 91 people have been killed and 1500 more injured due to social unrest since the beginning of the current wave of anti-government protests began in early April of this year. Anti-government supporters may be increasing their activity since Leopoldo Lopez, a prominent opposition leader, was released from a military prison on July 8 to serve the remainder of his 14-year sentence under house arrest. On July 3, Venezuelan opposition parties called for an unofficial poll to take place on Sunday, July 16, to determine whether citizens wish presidential elections to move forward in late 2018. Additionally, the poll will question whether the armed forces should "restore constitutional order," understood by many as a call for a coup d'état against President Nicolás Maduro.

Violent and often deadly clashes between protesters and security forces continue to occur on a near-daily basis in Venezuela, most notably in the capital city of Caracas. The vast majority of the victims have been killed by security forces, who have repeatedly been accused of excessive use of force, and the situation continues to escalate with no resolution in sight. Pro-government militias are also reportedly behind some of the violence.

These developments follow on a long series of progressively worsening crises affecting the restive country in recent months and years, including a breakdown of the democratic system, major shortages of gasoline, medications, food, and other basic necessities, an alarming spike in rates of violent crime, massive inflation and economic recession, and a resurgence of disease. Protesters regularly demand early elections, the resignation of President Maduro, the release of political prisoners, and humanitarian assistance from the government.

Advice

Individuals in Caracas and other Venezuelan cities are advised to limit movements, to strictly avoid all protests and roadblocks due to the likelihood of violence, and to closely monitor the situation.