Libya: LNA turmoil could lead to spike in violence /update 1

Event

Libyan National Army (LNA) leader Field Marshall Khalifa Haftar is reportedly alive, following conflicting reports of his death on April 13. Haftar's spokesperson has denied all reports of a stroke, although irreversible brain damage has been reported by unnamed European diplomats. Haftar is being treated at a hospital near Paris.

Additionally, Haftar's chief of staff - General Abdul Nadori - survived an alleged assassination attempt on Wednesday, April 18, in Sidi Khalifah, Benghazi. The car bomb attack took place as his convoy passed by; one civilian was killed in the incident and a policeman was wounded. Nadori has blamed "terrorists" for the attack, and has iterated that the LNA General Command remains united.

Context

If Haftar is unable to resume his political and military functions, it is unclear who will take control of the LNA. The resulting power vacuum could result in internal competition between LNA leaders and present an opportunity for the group's opponents, resulting in an escalation of fighting. Nadori had been named as a potential successor and the assassination attempt on his life underscores the volatile political situation.

Libya has been divided by rival governments and factions with their own militias and political parties since the 2011 uprising that toppled Muammar Gaddafi. The security situation in Libya remains precarious and the country is likely to remain unstable in the near-term amid the ongoing civil war. 

Advice

Individuals in Libya are advised to monitor the situation and remain vigilant.

The security environment in Libya remains complex. Although travel is possible in some areas (with appropriate security protocols in place), other areas should be considered strictly off-limits. Professional security advice and support should be sought prior to travel.