Uganda: Additional opposition rallies and protests likely through at least mid-January general election period /update 1

Event

Further protests and other forms of civil unrest fueled by allegations of government harassment and intimidation against opponents and critics of incumbent President Yoweri Museveni are possible across Uganda in the lead-up to the nation's Jan. 14 general election. While there have been cases of independent activists being targeted, incidents involving opposition National Unity Platform (NUP) party leader and presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (popularly known as Bobi Wine) and his supporters are most likely to draw public backlash.

Opposition groups have also accused the Election Commission of Uganda (ECU) of using coronavirus (COVID-19)-related restrictions as a tactic to limit campaign outreach. Nevertheless, campaigning and rallies have continued, with participant numbers usually exceeding the 200-person limit imposed by the ECU.

Security forces will remain deployed in major urban centers and near opposition events - especially those organized by Ssentamu's campaign - as a deterrent in the coming days. Protesters have clashed with security forces in the past; attempts by security forces to disperse gatherings or prevent activists from assembling could increase the potential for disturbances. Police may use tear gas, water cannon, batons, rubber bullets, and live ammunition to disperse protesters. Ground travel disruptions are likely near all protest sites.

Context

The Ugandan government appears to be focusing attention on Ssentamu out of concern that he is the candidate most likely to pose the strongest challenge to Museveni in the upcoming polls; the incumbent has been president of Uganda since 1986. Ssentamu has been arrested numerous times on various ostensibly non-political grounds after criticizing Museveni.

In the most recent incident, on Dec. 30, police detained Ssentamu and his support staff while they were campaigning in Kalangala in the country's Central Region. Authorities reportedly removed the group, transporting them by helicopter to Kampala and escorting them to Ssentamu's home in a military convoy. In response, Ssentamu publicly announced via social media that he and his campaign staff had been arrested; police, on the other hand, asserted they were enforcing an ECU decision to ban campaign events in some urban areas as part of efforts to control the spread of COVID-19. Any actual jailing of Ssentamu could draw significant public backlash. A November incident involving the arrest of the popular opposition candidate prompted rioting which ended with 54 people being killed.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Liaise with trusted contacts regarding possible protests and gathering sites in Uganda. Heed the directives of the security forces. Plan for possible transport disruptions. If violence breaks out nearby, leave the area and seek shelter in a secure, non-governmental building.