Mediterranean: Storms to bring daily rounds of rain and snow to Mediterranean region Jan. 5-9

Event

Consecutive low-pressure systems will bring rounds of rain and snow to much of the western Mediterranean region through Jan. 9. The affected areas include western Morocco, central and eastern Spain, including the Balearic Islands, central Italy, including Cagliari and Corsica, France. As of the evening Jan. 5, rain and snow are falling across much of western and central Italy. Forecast models indicate these initial bands of precipitation will track eastward across Italy toward the Balkan region through Jan. 6. Meanwhile, a secondary area of low-pressure will develop off the western coast of Morocco, late Jan. 6 or early Jan. 7, spreading heavy rainfall to western Morocco, Jan. 7. The area of heavy rain will spread toward Spain by the morning of Jan. 7 while snow and sleet will fall in central Spain by midday Jan. 7. Daily rounds of rain and snow will continue across Spain and Morocco, as additional rounds of precipitation arrive in Italy, Jan. 9. Precipitation will likely end across the entire region by Jan. 10.

Government Advisories
As of Jan. 5, authorities in Italy have issued orange-level warnings - the second-highest on a four-tiered scale - for snow in Piemonte, Liguria, Emilia and Romagna, and Abruzzo, while warnings for thunderstorms are in effect for Lazio and Campania. Orange-level warnings will persist in those regions, Jan. 6. Meanwhile, orange-level warnings are in effect for snowfall across portions of Spain, including Cazorla and Segura, Guadix and Baza, and Northwest Murcia. Marco Meteo has issued orange and yellow-level warnings for heavy rain, strong winds, and thunderstorms across northern Morocco. Authorities will likely expand coverage of the advisories as the systems approach and weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Forecast models indicate snowfall totals of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) are expected across the Sistema Iberico, the Sierra de Guadarrama, the eastern Cordillera Cantabrica and the Pyrenees of Spain, as well as the higher elevations of central Italy. Locally higher totals of up to 75 cm (30 inches) are possible. Meanwhile, rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are expected in the hardest-hit areas over the coming days, including southeastern Spain, the Balearic Islands, and the west coast of Morocco. Slightly lower rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are forecast in Italy.

Flash and areal flooding is possible, especially in areas where the soil is saturated from previous storm systems. Such flooding could occur in low-lying communities near watercourses and other bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Where precipitation falls as snow, wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. The adverse weather conditions could cause power outages throughout the affected area through at least Jan. 9.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Authorities could close mountain passes and tunnels as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall.

The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at regional airports, including those serving Madrid (MAD), Casablanca (CMN), Palma de Mallorca (PMI), and Rome (FCO). Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic in the Atlantic Ocean, Strait of Gibraltar, Alboran Sea, Balearic Sea, Mediterranean Sea, Tyrrhenian Sea, and Adriatic Sea. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or debris is cleared. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair, or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements prior to travel in the affected area through at least Jan. 9. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions if routing shipments through affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in case prolonged electricity outages occur.

Resources

MeteoAlarm
Maroc Meteo (French)