Bahrain: Protests possible nationwide Jan. 15, coinciding with the anniversary of the execution of several activists

Event

Anti-government protests are possible through late Jan. 15 to coincide with the anniversary of the execution of several Bahraini Shi'a activists. If protests do occur, they will likely take place in Shi'a areas outside of central Manama, such as Abu Saiba, Al-Dair, Al-Markh, Bani Jamra, Buri, Diraz, Karbabad, Karranah, Ma'ameer, Malkiya, Saar, Shakhura, and Sitra. Anti-government unrest usually increases during significant anniversaries related to the 2011 uprising or following the arrest of prominent activists or opposition leaders.

A heightened security presence should be anticipated in predominantly Shi'a locations. Localized traffic disruptions are possible near any protest site. Demonstrators frequently burn tires, block roads, and clash with security forces. Police often forcibly disperse protesters; officers could use tear gas, stun grenades, and possibly live ammunition to break up demonstrations.

Context

Violent anti-government protests have been a persistent issue since the 2011 uprising, which stemmed from the long-standing perception among members of the Shi'a majority that they were being politically and economically marginalized. The government, with the support of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), suppressed the uprising with a violent crackdown, though anti-government protests still occur frequently.

Tensions between the Sunni-led government and the Shi'a opposition remain high as authorities continue to arrest Shi'a leaders and religious figures, blacklist Shi'a organizations, and revoke the citizenship of activists. The government routinely claims the unrest is sponsored by Iran and alleges attacks against security forces are the work of individuals with ties to the Iran-backed Lebanese Shi'a group Hizballah. However, opposition supporters have rejected this claim and, in turn, accuse the government of using the specter of Iranian interference as a pretext to crack down on the opposition and its supporters.

Advice

Avoid all protests that may take place due to the potential for violence; if a protest forms near you, leave the area immediately. Do not take photographs. Consider planning alternative routes around potential demonstration sites. Adhere to the advice of security forces.