Uganda: Opposition protests likely nationwide following Jan. 14 elections /update 2

Event

Further protests and other forms of civil unrest, fueled by allegations of government harassment and intimidation against opponents and critics of incumbent President Yoweri Museveni, are likely nationwide following the country's Jan. 14 general election. As of Jan. 15, preliminary results place Museveni in the lead ahead of the main opposition candidate, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu (popularly known as Bobi Wine). Ssentamu has rejected the vote count, claiming that the election process was fraudulent. Unverified reports indicate that a large security personnel contingent has been deployed in the vicinity of his home.

Security forces will remain deployed in major urban centers and near opposition events - especially those organized by Ssentamu's campaign - as a deterrent in the coming days. Protesters have clashed with security forces in the past; attempts by security forces to disperse gatherings or prevent activists from assembling could increase the potential for disturbances. Police may use tear gas, water cannon, batons, rubber bullets, and live ammunition to disperse protesters. Ground travel disruptions are likely near all protest sites.

Context

The election process has been marred by bouts of violence and arrests, usually targeting opposition personnel and civil activists. Internet connections remain offline after authorities suspended services ahead of the vote. Opposition groups have stated that this move has been orchestrated to halt the reporting of fraud and violence during the elections. President Museveni, 76, is contesting for a sixth term in office.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Liaise with trusted contacts regarding possible protests and gathering sites in Uganda. Heed the directives of the security forces. Plan for possible transport disruptions. If violence breaks out nearby, leave the area and seek shelter in a secure, non-governmental building.