South Africa: Heightened security is likely to remain in place in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng provinces through July /update 8

Officials likely to maintain heightened security measures in Kwa-Zulu Natal and Gauteng provinces, South Africa, through July after unrest.

Event

Authorities will almost certainly maintain a heightened security presence in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provinces through July following recent violent and disruptive protests. The intensity and scale of the recent unrest have decreased significantly in recent days. No major incidents have been reported, and major road routes in both provinces are open as of the morning of July 19. Public transport has also largely resumed. However, the potential for further disruptive protest action exists. A hearing led by the Pietermaritzburg High Court concerning former President Jacob Zuma resumed, virtually, July 19. Judgments against Zuma, his continued incarceration, or his health status while in prison could spark demonstrations by his supporters.

Thousands of military and police personnel remain deployed across the two provinces. Further deployments are likely as the government seeks to dissuade persons from engaging in further civil unrest, particularly looting and disruption of major road routes. Supply shortages will also likely persist in the coming days. As of July 19, long queues for fuel, food, and other basic commodities have been reported across KZN. Officials and suppliers are taking measures to resume supply; however, the recent unrest, the threat of further violence, heightened security measures, and destruction of transport vehicles during previous periods of unrest are likely to delay a resumption of supply in the coming days and possibly weeks. Many shopping centers were also severely damaged during the unrest, leading communities to congregate at functioning shopping areas, which will place further pressure on outlets to meet demand.

The heightened security measures will decrease the possibility of wide-scale civil unrest. However, opportunistic sporadic unrest, including looting, could persist in places. Such unrest could be triggered by Zuma’s legal battles or in response to shortages of goods and service delivery demands, which could prompt short period, highly disruptive protests. National highways, informal settlements, city and town centers, warehousing districts are potential gathering points. The threat of clashes between protesters/looters and the security forces is high. Clashes between vigilante groups, including taxi associations and armed neighborhood watch groups, and looters or suspected looters remain a persistent threat in all recently impacted locations.

Context

Zuma was ordered to and entered prison, July 9, following his conviction of contempt of court. The conviction served as a spark for widespread protests and looting in KZN and Gauteng. During the peak of the unrest July 9-15 approximately 212 people were killed and over 3,000 arrested. Multiple road routes were blocked and hundreds of retail outlets and warehouses looted. The civil unrest is ostensibly linked to the ongoing incarceration of Zuma; however, most looting action appeared opportunistic and criminally motivated, as well as being driven by longstanding grievances over local disputes, high levels of unemployment, service delivery demands, and corruption. Protest action has not been widely reported outside of KZN and Gauteng; however, the possibility of related protests remains possible elsewhere.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts for further information on planned and actual protest areas. Consider alternative routes around impact areas. Reconfirm the status of roads before travel. Heed the directives of the local authorities. Verify deliveries; implement action plans to minimize supply chain disruptions. Stock up on fuel when possible. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.