Ukraine: Russian military offensive ongoing as of Feb. 25; clashes in Kyiv /update 6

Event

The Russian military offensive against Ukraine is ongoing as of Feb. 25. Unconfirmed reports indicate a small contingent of Russian forces is engaging Ukrainian troops near the Obolonskyi District on the northern outskirts of the capital, Kyiv. Shelling has also been reported in the nearby suburb of Vyshhorod. Earlier on Feb. 25, clashes were reported elsewhere in the Kyiv Region near Ivankov and Dymer, approximately 50 km (31 miles) northeast of Kyiv; Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a key bridge over the Teteriv River. Elsewhere in the Kyiv Region, conflicting reports indicate the Hostomel Airport (GML), around 25 km (15 miles) northwest of Kyiv, remains contested despite fierce fighting.

According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and various local officials, clashes are underway in the Sumy Region, near Velyka Pysarivka, approximately 8 km (5 miles) from the border with Russia. Clashes have also been reported in the Kharkiv Region, near the town of Kupyansk, where defenders destroyed a key bridge. Ukrainian forces have also confronted Russian units in the Chernihiv Region, near Hlukhiv, as well as in the Kherson Region and the Zaporizhia Region in the south of the country, where heavy fighting is reportedly ongoing. Russian and separatist forces have also attempted to push further into Ukraine from separatist-held areas in the southeastern Donbas region; clashes have been reported all along the line of contact.

Missile and artillery strikes have been confirmed in Kyiv, Odesa, and Kharkiv Feb. 25, and are likely elsewhere as Russia continues to press for advances. Missile strikes were reported Feb. 24 against cities across Ukraine, including Dnipro, Ivano-Frankivsk, Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kramatorsk, Lutsk, Mariupol, Odesa, and Zaporizhzhia, among others; further missile, artillery, and rocket barrages cannot be ruled out. Russian authorities assert that they are targeting military infrastructure only; however, Ukrainian officials have reported multiple civilian casualties.

Authorities in Kyiv reported Feb. 24 that 137 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and over 300 wounded over the course of the first day's combat; it remains unclear how many casualties Russian forces incurred Feb. 24. Updated casualty figures for Feb. 25 are yet to be released.

Curfews have been imposed in multiple regions including Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, Rivne, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, and Cherkasy; curfew hours are 22:00-07:00 in Kyiv, 22:00-05:00 in Odesa, and 22:00-06:00 in all other listed regions. Citizens are to stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and shift workers employed in critical infrastructure enterprises. Public transportation is unavailable during curfew hours.

Long-distance rail services to Kharkiv remain suspended and Metro services in the city have also ceased as many Metro stations are being used as bomb shelters. Most other Ukrainian Railways (UZ) services are operating normally but may be subject to disruptions with little warning. UZ is also operating evacuation trains from the Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. Freight rail transport to Slovakia has been suspended.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has declared martial law and ordered a nationwide general military mobilization; male citizens aged 18-60 are prohibited from leaving the country. The measure will be in effect for at least 90 days. All foreign nationals, however, remain free to depart. Borders remain open, but authorities prohibit strikes, rallies, and mass events. Under martial law, the government can implement special border controls, impose curfews, and evacuate residents from dangerous areas, if necessary. Several cities continue to report queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as of Feb. 25, and significant traffic congestion is reported on major roads leaving Kharkiv and other targeted cities.

Civilian aviation is suspended in Ukraine and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has suspended flights at domestic airports near its border with Ukraine through March 2 and has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov. Belarus has also enforced partial airspace closures. Furthermore, Moldova declared a state of emergency and closed its airspace Feb. 24.

Telecommunication and internet disruptions have been reported in Kharkiv and may spread to other regions over the coming hours and days. Russian forces could initiate electronic warfare attacks to blunt the Ukrainian military's response. Such attacks could disable telecommunications systems in areas in or near conflict zones and areas where offensives are planned.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has banned the withdrawal of foreign currency cash from accounts and has limited the permitted cash withdrawal to UAH 100,000 (3,340 USD) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

It remains unclear how long Russian military operations in Ukraine may last.

Context

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation in Ukraine during a televised address at around 05:45 (MSK) Feb. 24. According to President Putin, the military action will seek to "demilitarize" Ukraine. Nevertheless, the Kremlin's ultimate territorial objectives remain unclear. However, Moscow formally recognized the breakaway Donestk and Luhansk oblasts in the eastern Donbas region Feb. 21 and supported their claims to the entirety of those two provinces. As a result, Russia will likely attempt to seize control of Ukrainian-held towns in the Donbas region, with major ground operations taking place in areas east of the Dnieper River. Military activity elsewhere in Ukraine is likely to persist as Russian forces seek to degrade Ukrainian military capabilities.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services and borders before departure.