Ukraine: Russian military offensive continues on multiple fronts as of late March 2 /update 17

Event

The Russian military offensive against Ukraine has continued as of late March 2 despite plans for further negotiations between the two sides. The talks will likely begin late March 2 or March 3 at Belovezhskaya Puscha near the Belarus-Poland border.

Heavy fighting has been reported in Kharkiv. Intense clashes have also been reported in the southern city of Kherson; Ukraine has denied earlier reports that Russian troops are in control of the city center, claiming that street battles were taking place as of late March 2. Skirmishes continued between Russian and Ukrainian forces in multiple points on the outskirts of Kyiv March 2; authorities have erected military checkpoints and fortifications at numerous points throughout the city. In Chernihiv, officials state all entrances to the city have been blockaded by Ukrainian forces; residents are instructed to remain indoors.

Offensives by Russian and Russia-backed forces continue in multiple other areas of Ukraine. Clashes and Russian troop movements have been reported in the Chernihiv Region, particularly in areas west of Chernihiv city and northeast of Kyiv. Fighting and artillery strikes have also been reported in multiple areas of the Sumy Region in the northeast, as well as in the wider Kharkiv Region in the east. Russian forces continue attacks on multiple urban centers in the Zaporizhzhia Region and along the line of contact in the Donbas with the support of pro-Russia separatists. Missile and artillery strikes have impacted multiple areas, including several civilian buildings since the conflict began; airstrikes have also struck civilian infrastructure.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Curfews are in effect 22:00-06:00 in multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Lviv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Curfew hours are 18:00-06:00 in Kharkiv, 19:00-06:00 in Odesa, 20:00-06:00 in Dnipropetrovsk, 20:00-07:00 in Kyiv, 18:00-06:00 in Chernihiv, and 22:00-08:00 in Ivano-Frankivsk. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on the ground situation. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Shortages of basic supplies were reported in Kharkiv March 1 and similar shortages are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Russian bombardments have also caused widespread power outages in Mariupol. Other conflict-impacted cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict, though congestion has reportedly eased in the past 24 hours. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states have increased security at their respective borders with Ukraine to aid in the reception of high numbers of refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely continue.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv have resumed; however, trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations are functioning as bomb shelters. Civilian aviation is suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) services are operational in most of the country, though reports indicate severe delays and congestion. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, including in Kyiv, where they are likely attempting to board trains. UZ is also operating evacuation trains from Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. Authorities have canceled train services to Slovakia.

Intermittent telecommunications and internet disruptions continued across the country as of March 2. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only allows the withdrawal of up to UAH 30,000 (USD 1,000) in cash from foreign currency accounts and has limited the permitted cash withdrawal from domestic currency accounts to UAH 100,000 (USD 3,340) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Apparent Russian advances in the Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Donetsk regions may allow Russian and Russia-backed forces to link fronts in southern and southeastern Ukraine. Further Russian advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia may cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov. Additional advances in these regions will likely aid Russian forces in a potential future assault on the southwestern cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa.

While congestion has eased at Ukraine's western border crossings with European nations, internal displacement due to conflict developments could prompt another exodus from the country.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)