Libya: Heightened security in Tripoli, as of March 10

Event

The Libyan Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Adulhamid al-Debiebah has reportedly increased security measures in Tripoli as of March 10. The action comes amid threats by the Government of National Solidarity (GNS) Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha, who has stated that his government will assume power by the force of law.

Recently, various pro-GNS forces in Misrata, Warshefana, and Zawiyah have been mobilized. Unconfirmed reports indicate that three ministers from the GNU have also resigned, with one stating their mandate had ended due to the creation of the GNS by the Tobruk-based House of Representatives (HoR). In response to the increased alert state, pro-GNS forces have mobilized in Tajura and closed down Ain Zara and the Wadi Alrabea Road. This comes after pro-GNU troops deployed to the city's entrances overnight.

Further troop movements inside the capital and its environs are likely. There is an increased threat to governmental and state institutions within Tripoli. Heightened security measures, including additional checkpoints along major routes, are possible through late March. Should further militia actions be taken, confrontations between opposing groups remain possible. Disruptions to state operations are possible in response to the militia deployments.

Context

Political instability and civil unrest are likely to persist in Libya following the Parliament’s approval of a new government. On March 1, Libya’s parliament voted for a new government despite the incumbent prime minister’s rejection of the vote. Bashagha was selected as prime minister along with a new government consisting of three deputy prime ministers, twenty-nine ministers, and six ministers of state. Parliament’s vote highlights the continuing power struggle with interim Prime Minister Dbeibah, who was installed through an UN-backed process in 2021.

Because al-Dbeibah has pledged not to cede power, the March 1 vote will almost certainly produce two parallel administrations, which would almost certainly thwart UN efforts to ease political division in Libya. Previously, Libya was split between east- and west-based rival administrations supported by various militias and foreign actors. Bashagha’s new government risks triggering a new power struggle between the eastern-based assembly and al-Dbeibah's western-based interim government.

Advice

Exercise caution in Tripoli. Liaise with trusted contacts for updates. Avoid areas where armed forces appear to be gathering. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.