Ukraine: Russian strikes target military base near Lviv early March 13 /update 34

Event

Russian strikes targeted the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security (IPSC) near the city of Lviv early March 13. According to officials, eight missiles targeted the base. No casualties were immediately reported but investigations are ongoing. Russian strikes also hit the airbase in Ivano-Frankivsk.

Heavy fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces continues in multiple areas of Ukraine, with Russian forces targeting populated areas with airstrikes and artillery fire despite French and German efforts to push Moscow to agree to a ceasefire. Russian forces have continued their intense shelling of Mariupol, notably targeting the vicinity of a mosque sheltering dozens of people, among other locations within the besieged city. Heavy clashes have also been reported in the outskirts of Kyiv, particularly to the northwest of the capital. Parts of the military column stalled to the north of Kyiv have begun to disperse, probably as part of a Russian attempt to reposition forces ahead of a likely offensive push to encircle the city within the coming days.

Russian forces have also notably continued to threaten the movement of people and goods through humanitarian corridors, with Ukrainian officials claiming Russian forces killed seven civilians attempting to escape armed clashes near the capital. The governor of Donetsk Region has leveled similar accusations against Russian forces, claiming that their continued attacks on humanitarian corridors have complicated the transport of aid into Mariupol. While Mariupol remains under Ukrainian control as of March 12, the city's mayor claims that the incessant, 12-day bombardment of the city has killed over 1,500 people; Ukrainian authorities have warned of a humanitarian catastrophe as basic goods become increasingly scarce.

More than 2,000 residents of the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia Region, protested Russian forces' alleged kidnapping of the city's mayor, demanding his release March 12. The incident highlights Russian forces' apparent difficulty in enforcing order in some cities under their occupation.

The Russian military offensive has expanded in its geographic scope in recent days, with missile strikes now targeting cities in central and western Ukraine. At least three missiles struck a military airfield in the northwestern city of Lutsk March 11, killing four soldiers. Missiles also struck an airfield and other locations in the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk, as well as several locations in the central city of Dnipro early March 11.

Fighting continues to take place to the west, northwest, and east of Kyiv. Additionally, intense bombardments have continued in the eastern city of Kharkiv and in settlements to the south of the city, including Izyum. Rocket strikes and artillery shelling have also been reported in and around Chernihiv, Sumy, and Mariupol as of March 12.

Russian troops have encircled or partially encircled the cities of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, Polohy, Enerhodar, and Sumy. Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdyansk are under Russian occupation.

According to figures released by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 579 civilians have been killed and more than 1,000 others wounded since Russia's offensive against Ukraine began Feb. 24.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Males ages 18-60 are prohibited from leaving the country. Curfews are in effect 22:00-06:00 in multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Lviv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Curfew hours are 18:00-06:00 in Chernihiv and Kharkiv, 19:00-06:00 in Odesa and Mykolaiv, 20:00-06:00 in Dnipro and Kherson, 20:00-07:00 in Kyiv, and 22:00-07:00 in Ivano-Frankivsk. Depending on the ground situation, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Polohy, and Mariupol; similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Other conflict-ridden cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict, though congestion has reportedly eased. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states have increased security at their respective borders with Ukraine to aid in the reception of refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely persist and may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv are intermittent; trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations function as bomb shelters. Rail and road routes to the south and west of Kyiv remain largely operational, though the railway connection between Kyiv and Irpen was destroyed March 5. Civilian aviation remains suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Slovakia has resumed international rail services with Ukraine. Ukrainian Railways (UZ) is currently operating evacuation trains from multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa regions. UZ continues to operate intermittent services throughout much of the country, though reports indicate severe delays and congestion. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, particularly in Lviv, from where evacuation services to international destinations are coordinated.

Intermittent telecommunications and internet disruptions continue across much of the country. Power, water, gas, and other utilities or amenities have been disrupted throughout Sumy Region, as well as in Okhtyrka, Mariupol, and Kharkiv. Similar utility disruptions are highly likely in other urban centers facing artillery and rocket bombardment.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only allows the withdrawal of up to UAH 30,000 (USD 1,000) in cash from foreign currency accounts. It has limited the permitted cash withdrawal from domestic currency accounts to UAH 100,000 (USD 3,340) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asserted March 12 that Moscow could only take Kyiv if it "razes the city to the ground," indicating that Ukrainian leadership is unlikely to voluntarily submit to an agreement that surrenders the capital city to the Russian military. Zelensky, however, has said that he is open to discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, possibly in Jerusalem with the mediation of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

The foreign ministers of Ukraine and Russia met in Antalya, Turkey, March 10, but failed to agree to a 24-hour ceasefire or on humanitarian relief for Mariupol during their meeting. Ukraine continues to demand a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, while Russia demands that Ukraine surrender, disarm, and declare itself to be a neutral country remaining outside NATO and the EU.

In the southeast, Russian forces are reportedly moving northward from Melitopol and Polohy, and may approach Zaporizhzhia in the coming days. Russia may also attempt further advances in the Mykolaiv and Kherson regions; further advances to the west of Mykolaiv toward Odesa threaten to cut Ukraine off from supplies via the Black Sea.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)