Ukraine: Russian state media claims projectile fired from Ukraine explodes in military camp in Belgorod Oblast late March 29 as clashes continue /update 52

Event

Russian state media, citing an emergency services source, have claimed that a projectile exploded in a military camp in the country's Belgorod Oblast late March 29, wounding four military personnel. Russian media added that initial assessments showed the projectile was launched from Ukraine; the Ukrainian military did not immediately claim to be responsible for the incident. Belgorod regional authorities indicated that the incident and resulting series of explosions had occurred near Krasny Oktyabr, a village approximately 30 km (19 miles) southwest of the city of Belgorod near the Ukrainian border. The explosions have reportedly ceased, with no reports of damage or casualties within the village. If confirmed, the incident would mark only the second time that Ukrainian forces have struck targets within Russian territory since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine Feb. 24.

As of March 29, Russia's offensive against Ukraine had continued to focus on the southeast of the country, where Russian forces have concentrated ground assaults on the Severodonetsk area of Luhansk Region and the city of Mariupol. Intense clashes, centered on Severodonetsk, were reported in the neighboring towns of Rubizhne, Lysychansk, and Popasna. Separatist forces reportedly entered the towns of Ivanivka and Novosadove, to the northwest of Severodonetsk, furthering the potential encirclement of Ukrainian defenders in the area. Russian ground assaults on towns along the regional border between Kharkiv and Luhansk regions - namely, Topolske, Kamyanka, and Tykhotske - are likely aimed at supporting this potential encirclement effort. Russian ground assaults in Donetsk Region have focused on Vuhledar and Niu-York, southwest of Donetsk city, while artillery strikes have been reported near Pisky, Marinka, and Svitlodarsk. In Mariupol, intense clashes have been reported in the city center; Russian forces are believed to have captured the centrally located Drama Theater.

Ukrainian counteroffensives amid apparent Russian withdrawals have been reported to the west and northwest of Kyiv. Ukrainian forces have reportedly entered the towns of Motyzhyn, Kapytanivka, and Lisne. Ukraine was also conducting counteroffensives and other ground operations toward the town of Chuhuiv in Kharkiv Region, as well as in northwestern areas of Chernihiv Region and southwestern areas of Mykolaiv Region, as of March 29. These offensives are likely limited in size and scope, as Ukraine is likely resisting the temptation to overcommit forces amid reports of a possible Russian withdrawal from some areas to focus on the Donbas.

Elsewhere, shelling and missile strikes continue to be reported against targets across the country. A missile strike on the regional administration building in Mykolaiv March 29 killed at least nine people and wounded some 28 others. Intense shelling has recently been reported in Chernihiv city, while missile strikes have been reported on targets in Rivne and Klevan in Rivne Region as well as in Zhytomyr. Further intense shelling and missile strikes, including strikes on targets in western regions, are highly likely. Additionally, artillery strikes have sparked numerous small, but reportedly uncontrolled fires in and around the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, which is controlled by Russian forces.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue to take place in multiple urban centers. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region, where Russian forces have maintained a presence since March 2. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation. Elsewhere, protests have occurred in Henichesk, Berdyansk, and Melitopol, which are also under Russian occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and multiple other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00; in Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia, the curfew is in place from 20:00-05:00; and, in Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults in recent days. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

The conflict appears to be entering a protracted phase, and Russian troops are likely digging in defensively while they await resupply or reinforcement or otherwise regain the initiative they had during the early days of the conflict. Ukrainian counteroffensives, though limited, have reportedly been effective at pushing Russian forces out of some areas in recent days.

However, given that Russia is likely concentrating on the southeast to fulfill the stated aim of capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are unlikely to impact the course of the conflict significantly. Accordingly, offensive operations have increasingly focused on the Donbas. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make slow but steady gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions while continuing to close in on Mariupol city center.

While negotiations are ongoing, it is likely that Russian officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeast Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened. Moscow is reportedly no longer demanding Ukraine's unconditional surrender, while Kyiv has indicated a willingness to abandon the pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)