Ukraine: Russian forces continuing to withdraw some troops from the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas as of April 1 /update 55

Event

Russian forces are continuing to withdraw troops from the Kyiv and Chernihiv areas as of April 1 while still improving defensive positions in these sectors of the front. The strategy behind the move remains unclear, however. As yet, there is no reliable indicator as to whether the Kremlin's plan is to regroup and reinforce the withdrawn units before committing them to a renewed offensive in the same zones, or to redeploy them to other combat areas where Ukrainian resistance may not be as strong. Regardless, Russian forces are unlikely to permanently cede significant amounts of the territory they have gained since the start of the invasion.

In the Kyiv Region, Russian elements have reportedly withdrawn from Ivankov, the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, Bucha, and Hostomel located northwest of the Ukrainian capital. Moreover, according to preliminary information, Ukrainian forces have entered the towns of Mokrets and Zavorychi and encircled Russian forces at Bohdanivka to the east of Kyiv; Ukrainian troops have also reportedly retaken Borodyanka to the west of the capital. In the Chernihiv area, on the other hand, unconfirmed reports indicated that Ukrainian forces may have entered the towns of Sloboda, Lukashivka, and Yahidne. Local authorities have warned potential returning residents of a severe threat from unexploded ordnance in locations reclaimed by Ukraine's military.

Ukrainian forces have also conducted limited counterattacks in the Kherson Region, along with the Zaporizhzhia Region where they entered Malynivka and several other settlements.

Intense clashes have continued in the southeastern Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. In Luhansk, the Russian ground assaults continue to focus on Rubizhne and Popasna. The Ukrainian General Staff has confirmed that forces in Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Rubizhne, as well as along the stretch between Izyum and Sukha Kamyanka, are facing a very difficult situation. Russian forces are clashing with Ukrainian units in Yampil, west of Severodonetsk. In Donetsk, Russian troops launched an offensive on Vuhledar and claim to have taken Zolotaya Niva. Heavy clashes and persistent bombardment are ongoing in Mariupol, where the area controlled by Ukrainian forces reportedly continues to shrink. Russian forces have been reliably identified within the city center, where they are engaging Ukrainian defenders.

Early April 1, explosions and a major fire broke out at an oil depot in Belgorod, Russia. Russian authorities assert that the incident was the result of an airstrike conducted by two Ukrainian army helicopters; Ukraine's Ministry of Defense has denied staging any such attack.

Elsewhere, shelling and missile strikes continue to be reported against targets across the country. A missile strike on a military position near Dnipro killed two people and injured five. Shelling continues to be reported in Chernihiv city, as well as on targets in Zaporizhzhia Region, including Hulyaipole and Orikhiv. Further intense shelling and missile strikes, including strikes on targets in western regions, are highly likely.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue to take place in multiple urban centers. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region, where Russian forces have maintained a presence since March 2. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation. Elsewhere, protests have occurred in Henichesk, Berdyansk, and Melitopol, which are also under Russian occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and multiple other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00; in Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00. Zaporizhzhia has imposed a tighter curfew which will be in effect from 20:00 April 2 through 05:00 April 4. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults in recent days. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

The conflict appears to be entering a protracted phase, and Russian troops are likely digging in defensively while they await resupply or reinforcement or otherwise regain the initiative they had during the early days of the conflict. Ukrainian counteroffensives, though limited, have reportedly been effective at pushing Russian forces out of some areas in recent days.

However, given that Russia is likely concentrating on the southeast to fulfill the stated aim of capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are unlikely to impact the course of the conflict significantly. Accordingly, offensive operations have increasingly focused on the Donbas. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make slow but steady gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions while continuing to engage in heavy clashes with Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol city center.

While negotiations are ongoing, it is likely that Russian officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened. Moscow is reportedly no longer demanding Ukraine's unconditional surrender, while Kyiv has indicated a willingness to abandon the pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)