Ukraine: Russian forces continue withdrawal from several areas including Kyiv and Sumy as of April 4 /update 59

Event

Russian forces are continuing their planned withdrawal from several regions including the Kyiv Region as of April 4. Ukrainian forces are reportedly engaging in mopping-up operations to clear the area of any remaining isolated pockets of Russian troops. Preliminary information indicates that Russian forces have also started withdrawing some of their troops from Sumy. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces have been pushed out of the entire Zhytomyr Region.

In the Chernihiv Region, Ukrainian forces had reportedly retaken Kolychivka, Yahidne, Ivanivka, Talalaivka, Romny, and Lebedyn while Russian troops remain in Billopilya, Putyvl, and Buryn. Russian forces have continued to shell Kharkiv as of Apr. 4; however, no ground clashes were reported in that city. Ukrainian authorities have indicated that Russian forces plan to resume the offensive in Kharkiv.

In the southeast, Mariupol remains surrounded, with areas of the city under Ukrainian control reportedly decreasing. In Luhansk Region, Russian forces are continuing to launch ground assaults on Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna. In Donetsk Region, Russian troops gained some territory in Marinka and attempted to storm Vuhledar without success.

Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in the south and are withdrawing to positions east of and along the Dnieper. Ground offensives towards Mykolayiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Elsewhere, shelling and missile strikes continue to be reported against targets across the country. Several people were killed and more than ten injured by missile strikes in Mykolaiv. An unspecified number of missiles were reportedly intercepted over Odesa, though some reports suggest an oil refinery may have been struck in an industrial area to the city's east. Further intense shelling and missile strikes are likely, including strikes on targets in western regions.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation. Russian military forces reportedly fired on protesters in Kakhovka April 3.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed. As Ukrainian forces take more territory in Kyiv, some residents may start to return.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place from 21:00-06:00, except in the recently retaken Brovary, Vyshgorod, and Bucha districts where a full curfew has been imposed until 06:00 April 7. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

In locations where they are not withdrawing, Russian troops are likely digging in defensively while they await resupply or reinforcement or otherwise regain the initiative they had during the early days of the conflict. Ukrainian counteroffensives, though limited, have reportedly been effective at pushing Russian forces out of some areas in recent days.

However, given that Russia is likely concentrating on the southeast to fulfill the stated aim of capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are unlikely to impact the course of the conflict significantly. Accordingly, offensive operations have increasingly focused on the Donbas. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make slow but steady gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions while continuing to engage in heavy clashes with Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol city center.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations might make negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow more difficult, as the public might pressure senior Ukrainian political leadership not to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts the blame for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed. On the Russian side, it is likely that officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)