Europe: Russia to resume flights with 'friendly' nations from April 9 /update 33

Event

Authorities in Russia have announced that flights will resume with 'friendly' nations that have not imposed sanctions on Russia, starting April 9. Flights will resume with 52 nations including Algeria, Argentina, China, Lebanon, Peru, Pakistan, and South Africa. The Kremlin maintains a list of "unfriendly" nations that are enforcing sanctions against Russia and with which flights will likely not resume. The list includes all EU member nations, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, among several others.

Additionally, effective April 11, Russia will scrap the simplified visa process available for diplomats and journalists from the EU, Denmark, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. Holders of diplomatic passports from these countries will be required to obtain a visa to enter Russia.

Several governments are maintaining a plethora of international sanctions against Russia in response to its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions target the country's banking and finance sector, international travel capabilities, and specific Russian companies and citizens. Sanctions and countersanctions could limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus, and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe.

Still, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are unlikely to face administrative obstacles. However, flight availability has been significantly reduced. While there may be an elevated threat of arbitrary politically motivated detentions until tensions ease, the likelihood of such actions remains low.

Airspace Closures
The EU has prohibited all Russian-owned, -registered, or -controlled aircraft, including private and charter flights, from landing in, taking off from, or transiting any EU nation. Switzerland, the UK, Canada, the US, and several additional countries have imposed similar bans. Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has implemented reciprocal bans from Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries. The reciprocal airspace closures have prompted flight schedule changes and lengthier flight times, as carriers are forced to adjust routes.

Several airlines not necessarily impacted by the national airspace closures have nonetheless decided to partially or fully suspend services using Russian airspace due to a lack of insurance coverage or other issues prompted by sanctions. SriLankan Airlines (UL), Vietnam Airlines (VN), Swiss Airlines (LX), Azerbaijan Airlines (J2), and Air Astana (KC) have indefinitely suspended services with Russia. Korean Air (KE) has suspended flights through April 30.

European Air Travel Restrictions
Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued a warning for Ukraine and surrounding regions, including an advisory to avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles (185 km/115 miles) of the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine borders. Moldova has reopened its airspace following a temporary closure. To view the full EASA warning, click here.

Russian Domestic Air Restrictions
Russia is maintaining the suspension of commercial flight operations at several southern and central airports until at least April 7. Impacted airports include Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Anapa Airport (AAQ), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Elista International Airport (ESL), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Lipetsk Airport (LPK), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Voronezh International Airport (VOZ), and Simferopol International Airport (SIP).

Travel Warnings
Several governments have issued travel advisories calling on their nationals to avoid travel to the country and for those within the country to depart by commercial means when it is safe to do, including the US, France, the UK, Australia, and Canada.

Additionally, US authorities have suspended operations at the nation's embassy in Minsk, Belarus, and authorized the voluntary departure of nonemergency employees and family members working at the embassy in Moscow.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security measures. Multiple NATO members in the region have invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty. They could increase the readiness of their militaries as a result, though this is not an indication that they expect to become engaged in the conflict.

Moldova, Slovakia, and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency; Lithuania has tightened constituent measures to include a prohibition on collecting information on strategic sites or staging public events supporting Russia's actions. Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their respective borders with Ukraine open and are receiving refugees; special rail services shuttling evacuees across the border are available at some crossing points. These countries are also likely to maintain heightened troop deployments near their borders with Ukraine over at least the short term.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; Ukrainian citizens are, however, permitted to return.

Authorities in Finland have suspended Allegro train services between St. Petersburg and Helsinki; Allegro was the only regular rail service operating between Russia and the EU.

Sanctions
Authorities in the US, the UK, and the EU have agreed to impose economic sanctions on Russia. These include excluding Russian organizations from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system, forbidding citizens and companies from conducting transactions with several Russian organizations, including the Russian central bank, and freezing foreign-held assets of Russian companies and organizations. Sanctions have been periodically strengthened to encompass more entities or close loopholes. Notably, the US sanctioned a number of Russian technology companies on March 31 that are allegedly assisting the Russian military to evade sanctions.

Specifically, seven Russian and three Belarusian banks have been excluded from the SWIFT global financial messaging system. PayPal has halted services in Russia, while electronic payment companies Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have suspended operations in Russia. American Express has also suspended all operations in Belarus. Western Union has suspended its operations in Russia and Belarus.

Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds, as well as shortages of essential goods due to panic buying. Some shortages have been reported in Russia; however, authorities have begun investigations into allegations of price-gouging.

Russian authorities have imposed countermeasures intended to limit the impact of sanctions, including prohibiting Russian citizens from exiting the country with more than USD 10,000 in foreign currency and capital controls preventing foreign companies from selling Russian assets. Additionally, the sale of foreign currency is banned until Sept. 9. Russian nationals with existing foreign currency accounts may only withdraw up to USD 10,000, in USD only, until Sept. 9. Russian authorities have also banned the export of over 200 products, including telecommunications, agricultural, electrical, and technological equipment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree March 31 requiring unfriendly nations purchasing gas from Russia to make payments in Russian rubles. Although Russia has proposed a mechanism whereby foreign governments can make payments in foreign currency to a Russian bank which will then convert the amount to rubles, it remains to be seen whether Western nations will make gas payments in this manner. As a precaution, EU governments, including Germany and Austria, have taken formal steps to begin rationing gas in the event Russia cuts off supply.

Authorities in the US have banned the import of Russian oil, gas, and coal products. Officials in the UK have stated they would phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022, and EU officials have asserted they will aim to reduce imports of Russian gas by two-thirds by 2023. The measures will likely result in increased fuel prices in those regions.

Nearly 300 international companies have ceased or significantly reduced operations in Russia due to sanctions or in protest over the Kremlin's decision to invade, including retail, shipping, and telecommunications companies. Authorities in the UK, the EU, and the US have also prohibited the export of certain luxury items. This will likely result in a reduction in available goods and services across Russia. Russian authorities have threatened companies that pull out of the country with asset seizure and the arrest of employees in Russia who are critical of the government's actions.

Maritime Disruptions
Turkish authorities briefly closed the Bosporus strait to large cargo vessels March 26 following the discovery of a naval mine in the Black Sea north of Istanbul. A second mine was found off of the Turkish coastal town of Igneada, near the Turkish-Bulgarian border, March 28. The incidents come after the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) warned March 19 that some 420 Ukrainian naval mines had come loose following a storm in the Black Sea and could drift southward as far as the Bosporus. The Turkish Samsun NAVTEX station subsequently issued a warning to seafarers regarding the risk of mines, while other nations have warned their merchant fleets to avoid the area.

Civilian vessels cannot operate in the northern Black Sea or Sea of Azov, both important waterways for the global supply of grain, iron, and oil. Several civilian vessels have been damaged in the region, including two vessels sunk, and Russian naval forces have allegedly detained at least three others. There is also a significant buildup of cargo vessels at the Kerch Strait, with several other vessels remaining stuck in Ukrainian ports.

Several governments, including the UK, have banned Russian-connected ships from their seaports; various authorities have also seized Russian-owned vessels.

Anti-Western Sentiment
Heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. A potential rise in anti-Western sentiment could also result in increased scrutiny, harassment, or coercion of foreign nationals by border guards, police, and other officials. Such incidents could increase depending on the severity of any Western economic sanctions.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions; defer travel to Ukraine. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications
UK Travel Advice Russia
US Embassy in Russia