Ukraine: Russian forces continue to refocus military operations on eastern Ukraine April 6 /update 61

Event

Russian forces are continuing to refocus their operations on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine as of April 6. Russian troops are reportedly withdrawing from Belarus but some will very likely remain in defensive positions along the country's border with Ukraine in an effort to keep Ukrainian forces fixed in that area following Russia's April 5 pull out from Kyiv and Chernihiv regions. Russian forces appear to be redeploying the troops withdrawn from northern Ukraine and Belarus to support the offensive from Izyum in the Kharkiv Region towards Slovyansk in the Donetsk Region. Successfully capturing Slovyansk would facilitate the reinforcement of separatist forces operating around Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Region, as well as bolster prospects for encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. However, despite their recent frontal assaults on Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Russian units have made little progress toward capturing the regions amid growing supply issues and weakening morale among their troops.

The battle for Mariupol is also continuing as of April 6. Ukrainian defenders have thus far prevented the Russians from completely capturing the city, though limited verifiable information regarding the fighting is available. Overall, Mariupol remains likely to fall to Russian forces over the coming weeks.

In Sumy Region, Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from Putyvl and Buryn; however, Ukrainian forces have not yet moved back into those locations.

Russian units continued to shell the city of Kharkiv as of April 5, likely as part of an effort to keep Ukrainian forces fixed in place. Russian forces continue to probe south from Izyum towards Slovyansk and along a second axis towards Barvinkove. Clashes are reported around Sulyhivka and Dovhenke; Ukrainian forces reportedly launched a successful ambush on Russian forces near Barvinkove.

In Luhansk Region, Russian troops have reportedly reached the Popasna city center but have not advanced further toward Rubizhne or Lysychansk. Fighting and shelling continue near Donetsk city, particularly around Avdiivka and Marinka but little territory has changed hands.

Ukrainian forces have recently conducted successful counterattacks along the southern frontline, claiming to have liberated Dobyranka and Novovoznesenske in Kherson Region and Trudolyubivka in Mykolayiv Region; ongoing fighting is reported in Oleksandrivka. Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in the south and are withdrawing to positions east of and along the Dnieper River. Ground offensives towards Mykolayiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Elsewhere, shelling and missile strikes continue to be reported against targets across the country. On April 5, Russian strikes destroyed a fuel facility in Novomoskovsk, north of Dnipro, and Ukrainian military officials claimed to have intercepted two missiles in Radekhiv, Lviv Region. Further intense shelling and missile strikes are likely, including strikes on targets in western regions.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed. As Ukrainian forces take more territory in Kyiv, some residents may start to return.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place from 21:00-06:00, with some possible municipality level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin appears to be refocusing back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make gains in the southeastern part of Ukraine, albeit while continuing to engage in heavy clashes with defenders in Mariupol city center.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations might make negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow more difficult, as the public might pressure senior Ukrainian political leadership not to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts the blame for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed. On the Russian side, it is likely that officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)