Ukraine: No major changes in tactical situation reported as of April 16 /update 71

Event

No significant changes in the tactical situation in Ukraine have been reported April 16 by comparison with military activity over the previous several days. Russian forces are continuing to shore up their positions and posture in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, although troops redeployed from northern Ukraine have now reportedly joined the fight in the region. Nevertheless, there have been no major ground offensives in Donbas and Russian advances remain minimal. The town of Marinka remains contested. No advances have been reported in the Luhansk Region in the last 24 hours. Attacks on Rubizhne and Popasna have failed to make any advances. Russian forces also continue to reinforce their positions around Severodonetsk.

Heavy fighting is continuing in the strategic port city of Mariupol. Russian troops are reportedly focusing on capturing the port in the southwest and have struck the facility with heavy artillery and airstrikes in support of the offensive. Russian units have also captured the Ilyich Metallurgical Plant after troops from Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade broke out of the facility to link up with forces at the Ukrainian stronghold in the Azovstal steelworks. From the metallurgical plant, Russian forces are concentrating on defeating Ukrainian elements occupying Azovstal. The city will likely fall over the upcoming days.

Russia continues its stepped-up campaign of air and missile attacks with strikes targeting ammo and fuel dumps at multiple locations in the Donbas including Vrubivka, Berestove, and Hulyaipole, as well as in Cherkasy in central Ukraine and Chudniv in the western part of the country. Russian forces also struck an armaments plant on the outskirts of Kyiv, a military maintenance facility in Mykolaiv, and an unspecified target outside of the western city of Lviv representing an intensification of Russian strikes, likely in retaliation for the April 14 sinking of the Black Sea Fleet's flagship the missile cruiser Moskva. Russian troops also targeted a military airbase at Mirgorod near Poltava, destroying four helicopters on the ground.

In Kherson Region, intense clashes have been reported to the west of the city in the vicinity of Oleksandrivka. Ukraine's forces reportedly shelled Choronbaivka, possibly destroying a Russian ammunition depot. Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in this area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives toward Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term. Russian forces are continuing their offensive on Kharkiv.

The Kremlin has accused Ukrainian forces of firing mortars at a border post and launching airstrikes on other targets in Russia's Bryansk Oblast. Ukrainian officials have not confirmed these claims.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostnayets station is closed and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

Following the recapture of Kyiv and northern Ukraine, some residents may start to return; the EU, Italy, and France have announced their intention to reinstall a diplomatic presence in Kyiv; other governments will likely follow suit in the coming days and weeks.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is also in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew 22:00-06:00; the curfew will reportedly be lifted for Easter Vigil. In Sumy Region, the curfew is in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin has made a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum that Russian forces have lost. Recent troop withdrawals and redeployments represent a shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Despite the shift and the recent appointment of General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov as the theater-level commander, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements.

Recent talks have failed to yield any substantive de-escalation of the conflict. Moscow will probably only present concrete proposals when and if the Russian military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of committing various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations are almost certainly complicating negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow; senior Ukrainian political leadership will be unlikely to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts responsibility for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)