Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in eastern Ukraine as of April 22 /update 77

Event

Russian forces are continuing their offensive in eastern Ukraine as military officials confirm their intent to gain full control of eastern and southern Ukraine April 22. Russian troops have continued intense shelling and ground assaults in many locations along the line of contact in Ukraine's Donbas region but have made little territorial progress in the previous 48 hours.

Russian forces have declared victory in Mariupol despite defenders remaining entrenched in the Azovstal Steel Works. President Putin ordered a blockade of the steelworks instead of engaging in a costly clearing operation. Russia is likely to begin redeploying troops involved in the taking of Mariupol to support offensives in other areas, but this will take time as they will need time to recover their combat effectiveness degraded by the fighting in the city, and a significant force will be required to remain in the city to enforce the blockade of the steelworks.

The most intense fighting is reported along the line of contact in Luhansk Region, particularly in the Rubizhne, Popasna, and Severodonetsk. Ukrainian officials deny Russian claims to have taken control of Rubizhne and Popasna, but Russian forces remain in control of Kreminna. Russian forces continue to shell Adviika in the Donetsk region but have made no ground progress.

Russia continues to amass troops around Izyum in Kharkiv Region, with up to 25 Battalion Tactical Groups deployed as of April 22. Russian troops in Izyum have been probing south and east towards Slovyansk likely aiming to surround Ukrainian defenders in Luhansk Region; the scale of the offensive along this axis is likely to increase in the coming days. Elsewhere in Kharkiv, Ukrainian troops reportedly took further territory east of Chuhuiv, namely the towns of Pecheniky and Kochetok. Ukraine is likely seeking to disrupt Russian lines of communication leading to Izyum; intense fighting will likely continue in this sector.

Russia is continuing its increased air and missile strikes against several targets across Ukraine. Heavy shelling, in particular, has been reported in the northeastern suburbs of Kharkiv, as well as in Popasna, Rubizhne, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk. The Ukrainian General Staff has reported that air and missile strikes have increased by 50 percent in recent days.

Intense fighting continues to be reported in Oleksandrivka in the Kherson area. Russian attacks may be intended to divert Ukrainian attention away from advancing on Kherson while the Russians there entrench. Russian forces appear to remain mainly on the defensive in the Kherson area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives toward Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostnayets station is closed and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25; the directive was originally slated to expire April 25.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin has made a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum that Russian forces have lost. The renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine represents the shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Despite the shift and the recent appointment of General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov as the theater-level commander, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements. As a result, it is not certain whether this renewed offensive will result in rapid, significant territorial gains.

Recent talks have failed to yield any substantive de-escalation of the conflict. Moscow will probably only present concrete proposals when and if the Russian military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of committing various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations are almost certainly complicating negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow; senior Ukrainian political leadership will be unlikely to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts responsibility for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)