Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of April 25 /update 80

Event

Russian forces are continuing their offensive in eastern Ukraine with shelling and ground assaults targeting several locations April 25 as part of a renewed push to gain full control of the Donbas region. Russia has continued to integrate forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the country while launching missile attacks, airstrikes, artillery barrages, and small-scale ground assaults in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts to test Ukrainian defenses. Moscow will likely increase the scale of its ground offensive operations over the coming days; however, the precise pace at which Russian forces will launch those offensives, as well as their planned size, remains unclear.

The most intense fighting is currently taking place along the line of contact in an arc between Izyum, Severodonetsk, and Adviika. Russian troops concentrated near Izyum continue to launch probing attacks southward but have gained little territory in the previous 24 hours; however, reports indicate Russian forces were able to bypass the Ukrainian position at Dibrovne and attack the town of Pashkove threatening an important rail line linking Slovyansk with western Ukraine. In Luhansk, Russian forces reportedly established a pontoon bridge across the Siversky Donets River near the recently captured town of Kreminna on April 24 and have launched a renewed heavy assault on Popasna. Ukrainian authorities have intimated that Russian forces operating around Popasna and Rubizhne may attempt to assault and encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area instead of pursuing a more comprehensive envelopment of Ukrainian fighters throughout the Donbas region. Redeployed Russian troops continue to arrive in Kupyansk to the north of Izyum and will likely be used to reinforce the offensive in these areas.

Elsewhere in Kharkiv Region, Russian forces have continued to shell Kharkiv city from their positions to the northeast. Ukrainian forces have recently staged counterattacks in the region, reportedly capturing towns north of Kharkiv along the T2117 highway, but no further progress has been reported in the previous 24 hours.

In Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian troops continue to shell Marinka, Avdiivka, and Horlivka; Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled an attack on the town of Stepne and fighting continues to be reported around Zelene Pole and Malynivka. The last remaining Ukrainian forces in the besieged city of Mariupol are still blockaded in the Azovstal metal works; multiple attempts to establish humanitarian evacuation corridors have failed. It is not clear whether Moscow intends to continue the blockade or resume an assault on the facility to clear the remaining defenders.

In Kherson Region, Russian forces have continued to shell and launch unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions in recent days. However, intense fighting has been reported in the north of the region around Vysokopilya and Ukrainian officials believe this could develop into a significant offensive toward Kryvyi Rih in the coming days.

In addition to intense shelling of targets along the line of contact, Russia carried out several airstrikes on infrastructure targets in central and western Ukraine April 25. The attacks damaged rail infrastructure in towns in the Vinnytsia, Lviv, Zhytomyr, and Rivne regions, in addition to oil facilities in Kremenchuk in the Poltava region, resulting in multiple civilian casualties.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25; the directive was originally slated to expire April 25.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames; while curfew measures were adjusted for the night of April 23-24 in observance of Orthodox Easter, they have largely reverted back to their previously enforced timings. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in effect 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is also in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin has made a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum that Russian forces have lost. The renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine represents a shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Despite the shift and the recent appointment of General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov as the theater-level commander, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements. As a result, it is not certain whether this renewed offensive will result in rapid, significant territorial gains.

Recent talks have failed to yield any substantive de-escalation of the conflict. Moscow will probably only present concrete proposals when and if the Russian military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of committing various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations are almost certainly complicating negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow; senior Ukrainian political leadership will be unlikely to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts responsibility for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)