Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of April 27 /update 82

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine has continued April 27, with intense shelling and major ground assaults reported in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The most intense fighting has taken place in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, including heavy shelling along the line of contact. Russia continues ground assaults in the area south of Izyum, reportedly retaking control of Zavody April 27, and is steadily gaining ground in the area stretching from Izyum toward Rubizhne, capturing Zarichne. Popasna, in Luhansk Region, and Marinka, in Donestk Region, and several settlements in between continue to come under intense artillery fire and limited ground assaults; Ukrainian forces are so far able to repel most attacks in this area. Russian ground attacks continue in Mariupol, as Russian and Russian proxy forces continue to clash with Ukrainian defenders in residential areas to the north and east of the Azovstal Steel Plant. An assault on Azovstal appears unlikely at this stage, though artillery strikes on the facility have continued.

In southern Ukraine, Russian forces reportedly remain concentrated near Polohy, Zaporizhzhia Region, from where they have conducted limited attacks on towns to the north. Russian forces continue to shell Ukrainian positions in the Kherson Region, appearing to move from a mainly defensive to an offensive posture; Ukrainian military officials anticipate possible ground assaults towards Mykolaiv or Kryvyi Rih in the coming days.

A recent series of explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria since April 25 has raised concerns that Russia may be seeking to destabilize the region to provide a pretext for a Russian intervention that could ultimately be used to open a new front in southwestern Ukraine. However, this remains unlikely in the near future. However, Russia did damage a bridge near the town of Zatoka, west of Odesa, in missile strikes April 26; the destruction of this bridge would severely hamper Ukrainian ability to reinforce the Budjak area, directly south of Moldova.

Disruptions and Shortages

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed, and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25; the directive was initially slated to expire April 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place from 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in effect from 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is also in place from 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite increased Russian bombardments and ground assaults in the Donbas, Russian progress has been slow in recent days. Some units withdrawn from northern Ukraine are confirmed to have entered combat zones in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. However, given that these redeployed forces reportedly suffered losses of men and equipment during offensives in northern Ukraine, it is uncertain whether their piecemeal introduction in the country's east will result in rapid territorial gains.

In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Russia has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine, though such a move is almost certainly imminent. Russia may attempt to individually encircle fortified towns in the Donbas and/or attempt to cut off major groups of Ukrainian forces from western supply lines. Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex, theater-level maneuvers, though they are believed to possess this ability.

Recent explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to approximately 1,500 Russian troops, are likely designed to focus Ukrainian attention away from the Donbas to a potential threat to its southwestern region. Similar incidents are likely to continue in the coming weeks to maintain this threat. However, the small number of Russian troops in Transnistria, coupled with their relative isolation and the difficulty Russia would face reinforcing or supplying them logistically, suggest that no major threat is likely to materialize from this direction in the short term.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)