Europe: Authorities in Ukraine to stop the flow of Russian gas via Sokhranivka entry point from May 11 /update 50

Event

The Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) announced May 10 that it had declared force majeure at the Sokhranivka entry point and will suspend the flow of gas through the point from 07:00 May 11. Nearly a third of the gas that is transported from Russia to Europe via Ukraine flows through the point. The move comes as the GTSOU claimed that it cannot continue operations at the Novopskov gas compressor station on the Sokhranivka route because of the "interference of the occupying forces in technical processes"; Russian troops are in control of the territory in eastern Ukraine through which the gas is transported.

It is unclear if the shutdown will result in gas shortages in Europe. To compensate for the shutdown and avoid gas supply disruptions, the GTSOU has claimed that it could temporarily reroute the flow of fuel from Russia to the Sudzha interconnection point, located in Ukrainian-controlled territory. However, Russia's Gazprom has asserted that the GTSOU-proposed transfer of capacity would be "technologically impossible," adding that it had confirmed no proof of force majeure that would prevent the continued flow of fuel through Sokhranivka. Gazprom further stated that it is fulfilling its obligations to European gas buyers.

Preexisting conflict-related sanctions against Russia also continue to cause disruptions in Europe.

Airspace Closures
The airspace of numerous countries remains closed to all Russian aircraft and flights. Russia has implemented reciprocal bans from Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries, which include EU member nations, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, among others. The airspace closures have prompted flight schedule changes and lengthier flight times as carriers are forced to adjust routes. In addition, several airlines not necessarily impacted by the national airspace closures have decided to partially or fully suspend services using Russian airspace.

European Air Travel Restrictions
Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued an advisory to avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles (185 km/115 miles) of the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine borders. To view the full EASA warning, click here.

Russian Travel Restrictions
Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) is maintaining a ban on flight operations at 10 airports in southwestern parts of the country and at one airport in Russian-annexed Crimea until at least 03:45 MSK May 13. Impacted airports include Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Anapa Airport (AAQ), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Elista International Airport (ESL), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Lipetsk Airport (LPK), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), and Voronezh International Airport (VOZ) in Russia, in addition to Simferopol International Airport (SIP) in Russian-annexed Crimea.

Russia has scrapped the simplified visa process available for diplomats and journalists from the EU, Denmark, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. Holders of diplomatic passports from these countries will be required to obtain a visa to enter Russia.

Travel Warnings
Several governments, including those of the US, France, the UK, Australia, and Canada, have issued travel advisories calling on their nationals to avoid travel to Russia and for those within that country to depart by commercial means when it is safe to do so.

Additionally, multiple governments have expelled numerous Russian diplomats on various grounds, including espionage and other national security concerns. Moscow typically retaliates in a similar fashion. Such tit-for-tat moves may result in a reduction of available consular services in each country, though core services will likely be maintained while diplomatic missions remain open.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security. Moldova, Slovakia, and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency. Nevertheless, Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their borders with Ukraine open and are receiving refugees.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; however, Ukrainian citizens are permitted to return.

Authorities in Moldova have increased security nationwide after a series of explosions that occurred in the breakaway Transnistria region April 25-26. Separatist officials in Transnistria, on the other hand, increased the enclave's terror threat level to "red" for 15 days and established checkpoints at city access points.

Sanctions
Authorities in the US announced new sanctions against Russia May 8, affecting Moscow Industrial Bank and its 10 subsidiaries, as well as certain Russian state-owned television channels, including Channel One Russia, Rossiya-1, and NTV. Previously, on May 4, authorities in the UK and EU announced plans to impose additional sanctions against Russia. The government of the UK has banned the export of services to Russia, including accounting, management, and public relations services, in addition to further sanctions on additional Russian media organizations and staff. EU officials unveiled plans for a sixth package of sanctions against Moscow, which includes a gradual ban on Russian oil imports, a ban on additional state-owned broadcasters, and cutting off additional Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system, including Russia's largest bank, Sberbank. These measures must be unanimously agreed upon by all EU member states before being implemented, which will likely take several weeks. At least three EU members, Hungary, Slovakia, and Bulgaria, have stated they will not join a ban on oil imports; this could be resolved by granting these countries exemptions to that particular sanction.

Sanctions and countersanctions could limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe. However, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are unlikely to face administrative obstacles. Shortages of essential goods due to panic buying are possible.

Aside from governmental sanctions, over 750 companies have either suspended or terminated their Russian operations. PayPal has halted services in Russia, while electronic payment companies Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have suspended operations in the country. American Express has also suspended all operations in Belarus. Western Union has suspended its operations in Russia and Belarus.

Russia has stopped supplying natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria. The decision is in response to the refusal by several European governments, including Poland and Bulgaria, to accept the Kremlin's demand that so-called "unfriendly nations" pay for gas in rubles. Russian authorities may decide to cut off natural gas deliveries to other European countries in the near term.

Maritime Disruptions
Authorities in several countries have issued advisories to mariners concerning the ongoing danger posed to maritime navigation by drifting sea mines, primarily in the Northwest, West, and Southwest sectors of the Black Sea. Such mines have been discovered in the coastal waters of Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. Some nations have warned their merchant fleets to avoid the area due to the threat. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of being responsible for the hazard posed by drifting mines since the start of the conflict.

Civilian vessels cannot operate in the northern Black Sea or Sea of Azov, both important waterways for the global supply of grain, iron, and oil. Several civilian vessels have been damaged in the region, including two vessels sunk, and Russian naval forces have allegedly detained at least three others. There is also a significant buildup of cargo vessels at the Kerch Strait, with several other vessels remaining stuck in Ukrainian ports.

Russian vessels and Russian-operated ships are banned from accessing EU and US ports. Several other governments, including the UK, have also banned Russian-connected ships from their seaports; additionally, various authorities have seized Russian-owned vessels.

Anti-Western Sentiment
Heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. A potential rise in anti-Western sentiment could also result in increased scrutiny, harassment, or coercion of foreign nationals by border guards, police, and other officials.

Context

The May 10 force majeure announcement is the first such declaration to be made since the Russian invasion of Ukraine began Feb. 24.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions; defer travel to Ukraine. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media
UK Travel Advice Russia
US Embassy in Russia