Ukraine: Intense clashes reported near Severodonetsk as Russia's offensive continues in Donbas May 15 /update 100

Event

Clashes between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops have continued in various parts of the country May 15. The most intense clashes have taken place near Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Region, where Russian forces have made slow gains in recent days. Russian forces moving northward from the recently seized town of Popasna have clashed with Ukrainian troops near Zolote and Oleksandropillia. The T1303/P66 highway, which links Popasna with Severodonetsk via Zolote, remains under Ukrainian control but is a likely target for Russia's advance in this area.

Intense clashes have also been reported in the Donetsk Region, where Ukrainian military officials have confirmed that Russian forces have partially broken through Ukrainian defensive lines near Avdiivka. However, Ukrainian forces continue to maintain other positions in the area, including likely within the town itself. Russian assaults on the nearby towns of Marinka and Novomykhailivka have been repulsed.

North of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces reportedly continue to recapture towns that lie increasingly close to the Russian border amid a reported withdrawal of Russian troops from their final positions in the area. Russian shelling of Ukrainian positions has continued in Derhachi and Tsyrkuny, as well as in other satellite towns north of Kharkiv that Ukrainian forces have recently recaptured; however, artillery shelling has not fallen within the Kharkiv city limits.

Elsewhere, Russian forces have continued to shell towns south of Izyum in the Kharkiv Region, the towns of Hulyaipole and Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia Region, and multiple targets along the line of contact in the Donbas. Reported heavy clashes south of Hulyaipole remain unconfirmed, as do reports that Ukraine has launched a series of counterattacks northwest of Izyum.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00; in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Region, an extended curfew is in effect 18:00 May 13-06:00 May 16. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's seizure of settlements both north and south of Severodonetsk in recent days, combined with reported troop movements northward from the recently captured town of Popasna, suggests that Moscow may have once again amended its immediate objectives amid the otherwise sluggish campaign in the Donbas. The recent moves indicate that Russian forces arrayed along the Siverskyi Donets River may increasingly attempt to encircle pockets of defenders, such as those around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, rather than attempt a grander encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a large swath of territory from Popasna to Slovyansk.

Moscow is increasingly committing forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the combat zone to front lines in the Donbas; however, the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive north and east of the city of Kharkiv may prompt Russian forces to redirect troops to protect the main supply route between Belgorod, Russia, and Izyum in Ukraine's Kharkiv Region, where large concentrations of Russian troops and materiel are located.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service