Libya: Heightened security likely in Tripoli through late May

Event

The Libyan Government of National Unity (GNU) Prime Minister Adulhamid al-Debiebah will likely increase security measures in Tripoli through at least late May. The action comes amid continued tensions between militias loyal to the Government of National Solidarity (GNS) headed by Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha and the GNU. Clashes have regularly erupted between rival militias in recent weeks, including on May 17 when Bashagha entered Tripoli and tried to seize power without having already entered an agreement with Dbeibah. Following clashes in central and western Tripoli between the Nawasi Brigade, which backs the eastern government, and militias loyal to Dbeibah, Bashagha left Tripoli for Sirte.

Further troop movements are likely inside the capital and its environs. There is also an increased threat to government and state institutions within Tripoli. Confrontations between opposing groups are possible should further militia actions take place. Disruptions to state operations could occur due to the militia deployments.

Context

Political instability and civil unrest are likely to persist in Libya following the parliament's approval of a new government. On March 1, Libya's parliament voted for a new government despite the incumbent prime minister's rejection of the poll. Bashagha emerged as prime minister with a new government consisting of three deputy prime ministers, 29 ministers, and six ministers of state. The vote highlights the continuing power struggle with interim Prime Minister Dbeibah, who was installed through an UN-backed process in 2021.

As Dbeibah has pledged not to cede power, the March 1 vote will almost certainly produce two parallel administrations, thwarting UN efforts to ease political division in Libya. Libya was previously divided between east- and west-based rival administrations supported by various militias and foreign actors. Bashagha's new government risks triggering a new power struggle between the eastern-based assembly and Dbeibah's western-based interim government.

Advice

Exercise caution in Tripoli. Liaise with trusted contacts for updates. Avoid areas where armed forces appear to be gathering. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.