Libya: Heightened security likely in Tripoli through late June /update 1

Event

The Libyan Government of National Unity (GNU) will likely increase security in Tripoli through at least late June amid continued tensions with militias loyal to the Government of National Solidarity (GNS) headed by Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha. Clashes have regularly erupted between rival militias in recent weeks, including on May 17 when Bashagha entered Tripoli and tried to seize power from GNU Prime Minister Adulhamid al-Debiebah. Following clashes between the pro-GNS Nawasi Brigade and militias loyal to Dbeibah which broke out in central and western areas of the city, Bashagha left Tripoli for Sirte. Clashes also erupted in Tripoli between rival militias on May 28.

Further troop movements are likely in and around the Libyan capital. There is also an increased threat to government and state institutions within Tripoli. Further confrontations between opposing groups are possible. Disruptions to state operations could occur due to the militia deployments.

Context

Political instability and civil unrest will likely persist in Libya following the parliament's approval of a new government. On March 1, Libya's parliament voted for a new government despite the incumbent prime minister's rejection of the poll. Bashagha emerged as prime minister with a new government consisting of three deputy prime ministers, 29 ministers, and six ministers of state. The vote highlights the continuing power struggle with interim Prime Minister Dbeibah, who was installed through a UN-backed process in 2021.

As Dbeibah has pledged not to cede power, the March 1 vote will almost certainly produce two parallel administrations, thwarting UN efforts to ease political division in Libya. Libya was previously divided between east- and west-based rival administrations supported by various militias and foreign actors. Bashagha's new government risks triggering a new power struggle between the eastern-based assembly and Dbeibah's western-based interim government.

Advice

Exercise caution in Tripoli. Liaise with trusted contacts for updates. Avoid areas where armed forces appear to be gathering. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.