Ukraine: Heavy fighting continues in Severodonetsk area as of June 3 /update 119

Event

Russian forces have continued to conduct offensive actions in Ukraine as of June 3. Intense fighting is ongoing in the Severodonetsk area; while Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from the city, they have nonetheless launched some local counterattacks with the likely objective of wearing down Russian forces. Russian troops will probably capture Severodonetsk in the coming days, achieving the primary offensive objective that Moscow has pursued in recent weeks. Heavy shelling has also been reported in Lysychansk, located across the Siverskiy Donets River from Severodonetsk.

In the Kharkiv Region, no major changes on the ground have been reported over the past day. Ukrainian forces have retaken Vesele. Moscow's forces continue to shell targets in Kharkiv city as well as other towns in the area. Moreover, Russia continues to shell targets further north in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, highlighting the continued threat from such attacks, particularly in areas close to the border.

In the Popasna area, Russian forces appear to be moving northward and eastward. Combat has been reported in several towns, including Komyshuvakha, Vrubivka, Berestove, Bilohorivka, and Nahirne; Ukrainian forces have reportedly repulsed all of these attacks, with the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway consequently remaining under Ukrainian control. Additionally, frequent attacks have continued to target Ukrainian positions in Zolote and Toshkivka. On the Izyum axis, Russian forces have continued ground assaults toward Dovhenke to the southeast and Velyka Komyshuvakha to the southwest.

Ukrainian forces' counteroffensive along the administrative border between Kherson and Mykolaiv regions likely pushed Russian forces back to their defensive positions on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River June 2. Ukrainian forces have also conducted an assault on Starosillya, and clashes have been reported in Snihurivka; it was not immediately clear if Ukrainian or Russian forces were in control of these towns.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect from 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, through at least June 5. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia has increasingly focused men, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the encirclement of defenders in the Severodonetsk area and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas are conducting coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals from poor defensive positions following the partial Russian breakthrough at Popasna. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The threat of said weapons shipments in some way sparking a wider conflagration between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service