04 Jun 2022 | 12:46 AM UTC
Gulf of Mexico: Potential TC One is tracking northeast over Gulf of Mexico late June 3 /update 1
Potential TC One tracking northeast over Gulf of Mexico late June 3. Landfall likely over southern Florida, US, afternoon of June 4.
Event
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which formed from the remnants of Hurricane Agatha, is tracking northeast over the Gulf of Mexico late June 3. As of 19:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 155 km (95 miles) north of the western tip of Cuba. Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it continues to track northeastward, making landfall as a tropical storm over Collier County, Florida, US, the afternoon of June 4. The storm is forecast to maintain its strength as it tracks northeastward across southern Florida before emerging over the Atlantic Ocean late June 4. It is then likely to continue tracking northeastward across the Atlantic Ocean and make a close approach to Bermuda the evening of June 6, passing north of the island. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late June 3, the following watches and warnings are in place:
Tropical Storm Warning: The Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas, Florida Bay, and the west coast of Florida south of the middle of Longboat Key to Card Sound Bridge, the east coast of Florida south of the Volusia-Brevard county line to Card Sound Bridge, Lake Okeechobee, northwestern Bahamas, and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and Mayabeque.
Tropical Storm Watch: Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.
The US Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a "Moderate Risk" (level 3 on a four-tier scale) for excessive rainfall for South Florida and the Florida Keys through early June 4, where the heaviest rainfall is forecast. A "Slight Risk" for excessive rainfall is in place for portions of Central and South Florida as well as the Florida Keys through early June 5. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.
Heavy rainfall is forecast over western Cuba through June 3 as well as over Central Florida, South Florida, and the Keys in the US and the northwestern Bahamas June 3-4. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) over western Cuba, 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over Central and South Florida including the Keys, and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over the northwestern Bahamas. Authorities have warned that the storm surge combined with the tides could flood normally dry areas near the coast. The water could reach 30-90 cm (1-3 feet) from Marco Island, Florida, to Card Sound Bridge as well as over far northwestern Bahamas and 30-60 cm (1-2 feet) at Charlotte Harbor, Florida Keys, Dry Tortugas, and from Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, Florida, including Biscayne Bay. Isolated tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys from late June 3 through June 4.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
