05 Jun 2022 | 01:30 AM UTC
Atlantic Ocean: Potential TC One tracking northeast over the Atlantic Ocean late June 4 /update 3
Potential TC One tracking northeast over the Atlantic Ocean late June 4. Close approach to Bermuda likely the afternoon of June 6.
Event
Potential Tropical Cyclone One, which formed from the remnants of Hurricane Agatha, is tracking northeast over the Atlantic Ocean late June 4, following landfall over Southwest Florida June 4. As of 20:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 185 km (105 miles) northeast of Fort Pierce, Florida. Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen slightly as it continues tracking northeastward across the Atlantic Ocean before making a close approach to Bermuda the afternoon of June 6, passing north of the island. It is then likely to continue tracking northeastward while weakening gradually through June 9. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
In Cuba, reports indicate flooding has occurred in Havana, Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, Sancti Spiritus, and Matanzas provinces as well as Isla de la Juventud Municipality. Authorities have confirmed at least two fatalities in Havana Province and another fatality in Pinar del Rio Province June 3 due to landslides and flooding. At least 50,000 people across Havana, Pinar del Rio, and Mayabeque provinces were without power by late June 3. Officials have evacuated around 2,300 people in Havana Province and around 4,480 people in Pinar del Rio Province.
Heavy rainfall resulted in flooding across much of South Florida in Florida, with Miami-Dade County being the worst hit. Hundreds of flights across South Florida were canceled June 3-4, including flights at Miami International Airport (MIA) and Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport (FLL).
As of late June 4, the following watches and warnings are in place:
Tropical Storm Warning: Northwestern Bahamas.
Tropical Storm Watch: Bermuda.
The US Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a "Slight Risk" (level 2 on a four-tier scale) for excessive rainfall across the eastern portions of South Florida through early June 5. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.
Heavy rainfall is forecast to diminish over South Florida and the Florida Keys, through the evening of June 4, while heavy rainfall is likely across the northwestern Bahamas through early June 5 and over Bermuda late June 5-6. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) over South Florida, with urban flooding likely to continue, 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over the Florida Keys and the northwestern Bahamas, and 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) over Bermuda. Authorities have warned that the storm surge could raise water levels by 30-90 cm (1-3 feet) in far northwestern Bahamas.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
