Ukraine: Russian forces continue efforts to encircle and capture Severodonetsk as of June 5 /update 121

Event

Russian forces have continued to conduct offensive actions in Ukraine as of June 5. The most intense fighting has centered around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in the Luhansk Region. Ukrainian defenders in Severodonetsk have offered stiff resistance, conducting limited counterattacks to prevent Russia's complete capture of the city. Ukrainian forces have also repulsed numerous Russian attacks on their positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, the main supply route for defenders in Severodonetsk. Additionally, Russia has launched numerous missiles and airstrikes against targets near Bakhmut. Despite failing to fully encircle Severodonetsk as of yet, Russian troops will probably capture the city in the coming days.

Elsewhere in the east, the Ukrainian military reports that Russian forces have increased their use of electronic warfare equipment around Slovyansk, while Russian troops are concentrating near Dovhenke and Brazhkivka ahead of potential ground assaults on Ukrainian positions in the area. Recent Russian attacks west of Lyman have been unsuccessful; Ukrainian forces have repulsed numerous assaults on the nearby settlements of Bohorodychne and Svyatohirsk. Slovyansk is unlikely to face Russian ground assaults in the immediate term.

In the south of the country, Russia has conducted numerous airstrikes and missile attacks in the face of Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive along the administrative border between the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Russian forces likely retreated to defensive positions on the eastern bank of the Inhulets River in recent days and will probably continue to focus on defending positions under their control over the short term.

Intense shelling continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, as well as on targets northeast of Kharkiv city. Missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities. Notably, Russia launched missiles at Kyiv early June 5, claiming to destroy European-supplied tanks; Ukraine asserted that the projectiles hit a train car repair facility. At least one person was wounded in the incident, which was the first missile attack to target the capital in more than a month.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 12. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia has increasingly focused men, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the encirclement of defenders in the Severodonetsk area and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas are conducting coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals from poor defensive positions following the partial Russian breakthrough at Popasna. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The possibility of these weapons shipments sparking a wider conflict between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service