Ukraine: Intense combat continues in Severodonetsk as of June 9 /update 125

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continues as of June 9. Moscow remains focused on capturing the city of Severodonetsk, in Luhansk Region, and is making slow gains as Russian forces precede advances with intense artillery and rocket fire. Ukrainian defenders are reportedly concentrated in the industrial area in the west of the city. Ukraine repelled further assaults against Toshkivka and Ustynivka June 8; intense fighting is ongoing in this area as Russian forces attempt to drive northwards to assault Lysychansk directly. In the Popasna salient, Ukrainian forces claim to have recaptured Nahirne near the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway; fighting is ongoing in nearby Berestove. Ukraine remains in control of the highway, but the threat from Russian artillery means some supplies to the Severodonetsk area are instead being routed via Siversk.

Russian forces have been amassing in Izyum June 8 suggesting a major offensive towards Slovyansk from this direction is likely in the coming days. Fighting is ongoing around Svyatorisk and Staryi Karavan on the north bank of the Siverskiy Donets River. Russian forces in these areas are likely attempting to link up with any assault from Izyum behind Ukrainian defenders at Dovhenke or converge on Slovyansk from two directions at once; this effort is stymied by the destruction of the bridges near both settlements. Slovyansk is likely Russia's next main target. Moscow may not wait for the fall of Severodonetsk before ratcheting up efforts in this area in order to pressure Ukrainian defenders on two fronts.

Russia launched some offensives along the Kherson-Mykolaiv administrative border June 8 in efforts to take back territory gained by Ukraine in recent counterattacks. Combat is ongoing around Vyskopillya, Kochubeivka, Davydiv Brid, and Blahodatne. Russian forces are reportedly being redeployed from Zaporizhzhia to assist in this area. Separately, the frontline north and east of Kharkiv has stabilized around Lyptsi, Ternova, and Rubizhne. Russian forces continue to shell Ukrainian-held settlements in the area, including the southern Novobavarskyi District of Kharkiv June 9 killing three.

Intense shelling also continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas and missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities. Notably, Russia launched missiles at Kyiv early June 5, damaging a rail car repair factory. At least one person was wounded in the incident, which was the first missile attack to target the capital in more than a month. A missile also struck a high-rise building in Novohrad-Volynskyi, Zhytomyr Region, June 9.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 12. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to focus the majority of its personnel, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the battle for Severodonetsk and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have withdrawn from poorer defensive positions and are now conducting limited counterattacks in Severodonetsk and the surrounding area to frustrate Russian advances and attrite Russian forces. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The possibility of these weapons shipments sparking a wider conflict between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service