Ukraine: Intense combat continues in Severodonetsk as of June 15 /update 131

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine is continuing June 15. Severodonetsk remains the center of the conflict as Moscow attempts to take full control of the city. Ukrainian military officials claim Moscow has moved two Battalion Tactical Groups north of Severodonetsk to assist with this objective. Russian forces claim to have surrounded the bulk of remaining defenders in the Azot industrial zone in the west of the city as of June 14 and are calling for their surrender; a proposed humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians failed to materialize. Ukrainian forces continued to repel Russian attacks from the Popasna salient towards the strategically important Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, but Russian forces are making incremental gains toward Bakhmut city from the southeast, reportedly capturing Virodzhennya and Roty June 14.

Unconfirmed reports suggest Ukrainian forces have continued counterattacks towards Izyum from the west and are now approximately 8 km (5 miles) from the city after capturing Zavody June 13. Russian forces in Izyum and Lyman continue to prepare for a likely coordinated offensive towards Slovyansk, Russia's likely next main objective after capturing Severodonetsk. Russian forces in Lyman are also likely to advance towards Siversk to assist in assaulting Lysychansk. However, any assaults from Lyman require crossing the Siverskiy Donets River which has proven a significant obstacle to Russian advances throughout the conflict.

In the north of the country around Kharkiv fighting is concentrated between Ternova and Rubizhne. Russian forces reportedly captured Ternova June 13 but were again unsuccessful in assaulting Rubizhne June 14; Moscow also claims to have repulsed Ukrainian attacks on Starytsya and Izbytske June 14. Russian objectives in the south of the country continue to be focused on defending existing positions in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Moscow's military efforts are most concentrated in the northeast of the Zaporizhzhia Region near the Donetsk administrative border. Ukrainian counterattacks in Kherson have recently focused on the area between the cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson and around Davydiv Brid. The situation in this area is fluid with territory regularly changing hands and hard to verify.

Intense shelling also continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, north of Kharkiv, and at the frontline along the Kherson regional administrative border. Missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities. Ukrainian officials confirmed that air defense systems intercepted missiles above Zolochiv in Lviv Region June 14 with debris resulting in four injuries and damage to infrastructure. Authorities in Ternopil, Khmelnytskyi, and Odesa regions also confirmed intercepting Russian missiles June 14 but did not report damage or casualties as a result.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 19. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to focus the majority of its personnel, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the battle for Severodonetsk and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have withdrawn from poorer defensive positions and are now conducting limited counterattacks in Severodonetsk and the surrounding area to frustrate Russian advances and attrite Russian forces. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The possibility of these weapons shipments sparking a wider conflict between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service