Myanmar: Pro-democracy groups likely to hold protests nationwide June 19 to mark Aung San Suu Kyi's birthday

Event

Pro-democracy activists will likely stage gatherings nationwide June 19 to mark former State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi's 77th birthday. The largest protests will probably occur outside government buildings and in other popular protest sites, such as public squares, in major cities like Yangon and Mandalay. Hundreds to thousands of people will probably participate in larger demonstrations.

Authorities will likely implement increased security measures at any protest locations. Localized transport and business disruptions are probable during any demonstration, especially if activists set up roadblocks by parking cars in the middle of streets. Clashes between pro-democracy activists and security forces are likely if protests occur. Security personnel could use force to disperse gatherings; officers and troops have used live ammunition and violence to stop previous rallies. Officials may disrupt telecommunication networks in anticipation of or in response to any large or disruptive protests, as well as in areas where clashes occur.

Explosions, especially those targeting security personnel and facilities, may occur in rural areas and urban centers, including Yangon, Mandalay, and Naypyidaw. A blast struck in Kyauktada Township, Yangon, May 31, killing one and injuring nine others, though the military and anti-coup groups have accused one another of staging the incident. Armed clashes between the military and anti-coup activists or armed ethnic insurgent groups could also intensify.

Context

The protests will likely occur amid continuing anti-coup demonstrations nationwide. Military personnel detained several senior National League for Democracy (NLD) members, including Aung San Suu Kyi, on charges of election fraud Feb. 1, 2021, the day that parliament members were to take up their seats. Aung San Suu Kyi remains detained indefinitely and has received prison sentences for several charges, including alleged corruption offenses, possessing walkie-talkies, and violating COVID-19 measures; the military's opponents claim that the charges are politically motivated.

Advice

Strictly avoid any protests, government buildings, security installations, and large concentrations of police and soldiers. Monitor local developments, especially rally plans, closely, as organizers may not announce details in advance. If a demonstration forms nearby, immediately leave the area, seek shelter at a safe non-government building, and stay away from windows. Heed all official security instructions. Register and maintain contact with diplomatic missions.