Pacific Ocean: Tropical Depression Celia tracking westward in Pacific Ocean late June 18 /update 2

Event

Tropical Depression Celia is tracking westward in the Pacific Ocean late June 18. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 105 km (65 miles) south-southeast of Puerto San Jose, Guatemala. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength as it turns to track west-southwestward June 19, making a close approach to southern Guatemala's coast before moving away from Central America. The storm is forecast to remain a depression as it turns to track westward and then west-northwestward June 20, before strengthening into a tropical storm as it continues to track west-northwestward and then northwestward around 400-500 km (249-311 miles) off the southwest coast of Mexico June 21-23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late June 17, the National Hurricane Center has not issued any watches or warnings in relation to the storm. Heavy rainfall is forecast north of Celia's track over parts of far southern Mexico and Guatemala. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding and landslides in parts of the affected areas. Winds generated by Celia are not forecast to have any direct impact over land; however, the storm could generate rough seas affecting coastal areas of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico over the coming days.

As of early June 19, El Salvador Civil Protection is maintaining red alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for coastal municipalities due to the threat of the storm system, as well as orange alerts for volcanic and northern mountain ranges and yellow alerts for the rest of the country. The National Service for Territorial Studies (SNET) has warned that due to the influence of Celia and an approaching tropical wave, periods of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are possible over parts of the country June 19-20. At least 28 people were evacuated after heavy rainfall triggered flooding in Sonsonate Department June 17-18.

Guatemala's National Institute for Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology (INSUVIMEH) has warned that the system will bring a continued threat of heavy rainfall and possible flooding and landslides through at least June 20, especially over southern and central regions. Flooding has been reported in parts of Escuintla, Guatemala, and Jutipapa departments in southwestern Guatemala June 17-18, affecting around 4,000 people and damaging bridges and roads in the region.

Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) has forecast that Celia, along with other meteorological factors, will contribute to intense rainfall over parts of Puebla, Veracruz, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Tabasco, Campeche, and Quintana Roo states June 19-22. Daily rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are possible in the affected areas, as well as strong winds and rough seas over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
El Salvador National Service for Territorial Studies (SNET)
Guatemala National Institute for Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology
Mexican National Meteorological Service