Ukraine: Intense combat continues in Severodonetsk and surrounding settlements as of June 21 /update 137

Event

Moscow has continued to focus its efforts on completing the capture of Severodonetsk in Ukraine's Luhansk Region as of June 21. Ukrainian officials have confirmed that their troops have lost control of all parts of the city to advancing Russian forces except for the Azot industrial zone, where fighting is reportedly ongoing. Russian troops have also captured Toshkivka, located south of Severodonetsk, and are advancing in the direction of Myrna Dolyna. Ukrainian defenders have repulsed attacks on Syrotyne and Berestove, as well as assaults toward the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway from the east.

Elsewhere in the east, Russian forces have continued their attempts to advance on Slovyansk from Izyum; however, Ukrainian defenders have repelled their assaults near Bohorodychne and Dolyna, as well as in the Maryinka area. Slovyansk is likely among Russia's top objectives after securing control of the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area.

North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces are continuing efforts to prevent Ukrainian troops from reaching the shared border or key supply routes. Russian forces have recently conducted limited counteroffensives intended to gain control of more defensible locations; fighting is concentrated around the Ternova and Rubizhne areas. Russian shelling killed at least 15 civilians in Kharkiv Region June 21.

The territorial situation remains unclear along the front line between the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Ukrainian counterattacks are reportedly making incremental progress toward Kherson city, with unconfirmed reports stating Ukrainian troops are within 15 km (9 miles) of the city.

Intense shelling continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, north of Kharkiv, and at the international border in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. Missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities. Notably, Russian officials claimed June 21 that their forces had targeted an airfield near Odesa in a missile attack.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect from 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 26. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, Russia continues to make slow advances across multiple axes in Ukraine. Most notably, Russia has furthered advances along the road from Izyum to Slovyansk and in various areas between Popasna and Bakhmut. Pro-Russia separatist forces also claim to be advancing on Bakhmut from the Svitlodarsk area in support of Russia's offensive; combat has been reported in this area. Russia continues to incrementally reverse some of the gains made by Ukrainian counteroffensives north and east of Kharkiv city, recapturing a small number of settlements and once again shelling the city's northern outskirts. However, Russia continues to focus military resources on the battle for Severodonetsk and, to a lesser extent, Lysychansk. Ukrainian forces continue to hold defensive positions in parts of the Severodonetsk area, including in outlying suburbs, and are conducting limited counterattacks to frustrate Russian advances and attrite Russian forces.

Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces are likely coming under increased pressure in the Donbas as Russia continues to conduct intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on defensive positions. Furthermore, it remains unclear whether Ukraine can capitalize on the Kremlin's focus on capturing Severodonetsk by, for example, completing the effort to drive Russian forces out of areas north of Kharkiv city.

While the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to occasionally target critical infrastructure and other sites across the country.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service