Ukraine: Russian forces claim complete control of Luhansk Region as of July 4 /update 150

Event

Russian forces claim to have reached the administrative borders of the Luhansk Region in east Ukraine, and thus complete control of the area as of July 4. Ukrainian forces withdrew from the last major settlement under their control in the region, Lysychansk, and smaller settlements by late July 3. Nonetheless, some combat operations are underway in Lysychansk and elsewhere in the area as Russian forces clear the city of remaining defenders. The Ukrainian General Staff of the Armed Forces states that Russian troops are present in Bilohorivka - after possibly bridging the Siverskiy Donets River - and other areas bordering the neighboring Donetsk Region.

The most intense combat now occurs near settlements on the approach to Bakhmut from the Lysychansk and Popasna directions, including Berestove, Spirne, and Pokrovske. Reports also indicate intense fighting in areas surrounding the Vuhlehirska Reservoir, including Novoluhanske and the Vuhlehirska Thermal Powerplant. Elsewhere in the Donetsk Region, combat and intense aerial bombardment have occurred in Avdiivka and Marinka; both remain under Ukrainian control. The Kremlin's forces continue to stage constant ground assaults on the Ukrainian defensive line west of Slovyansk; Ukrainian forces have repulsed assaults on the settlements of Mazanivka, Krasnopillya, Dolyna, and Bohorodychne.

Russian forces maintain primarily defensive positions along the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions and continue to strike Ukrainian forces using aircraft, missiles, and artillery. Reports indicate missile strikes in the Mykolaiv Region the morning of July 4, targeting the villages of Pervomaiske, Bereznehuvate, Lepetykha, Shyroke, and Dniprovske. Ukraine has repulsed ground assaults in the Ivanivka, Potemkine, and Myrne areas.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least July 10. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

With Russia having likely secured much of the Luhansk Region, the Kremlin has achieved a significant objective. Moscow's attention will now probably turn to the impending battles for Siversk, Bakhmut, and Slovyansk. With the bulk of Russia's men and equipment deployed in the Luhansk Region, further major assaults against settlements bordering that region are likely. Ukrainian forces are likely seeking to bolster defensive positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk Highway and between Bakhmut and Svitlodarsk. However, it remains possible that, following the fall of the Luhansk Region, Ukrainian forces will fall back beyond the highway to more established defensive positions in Bakhmut and Siversk.

Regardless of Russia's next major objective, an increase in Russian offensive operations throughout the combat zone is highly likely. The territorial situation in much of the country outside the Luhansk Region has remained fairly static for several days. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry, in an effect to attrite and degrade Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces continue to come under intense pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions.

Ukrainian intelligence released a statement on July 1 indicating that, in its estimation, a direct military offensive from Belarus remains unlikely despite the deployment of seven battalions of the Belarusian Armed Forces near the border with Ukraine. However, Minsk has falsely accused Kyiv of launching missiles against military facilities within Belarus; Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko alleges that Ukraine is provoking his country and has threatened to "respond instantly" to any attacks.

While the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service