Sri Lanka: Indefinite nationwide state of emergency continues July 20 as Ranil Wickremesinghe wins presidential election /update 26

Event

Ranil Wickremesinghe has won the Sri Lankan presidential election July 20 amid ongoing anti-government protests. He garnered 134 out of 225 possible votes. An interim all-party government will assume power until fresh elections occur in or by 2024. An indefinite nationwide state of public emergency continues. Current emergency regulations permit arrests and searches to maintain public order. They also allow the president to suspend, amend, or introduce laws.

Protests over economic problems continue to occur in Colombo and other parts of Sri Lanka as of July 20 after President Gotabaya Rajapaksa resigned July 14. Protestors continue to occupy the Presidential Secretariat, but have vacated the Prime Minister's Office as well as the residences of the president and prime minister. Disruptive demonstrations are likely in the coming days, as prominent protest groups have opposed Wickremesinghe assuming presidential powers. Activists have also demanded the interim government implement tax cuts and curtail presidential powers, among others.

Civil Unrest
Demonstrators have staged sit-ins or marches at or near fuel stations, hospitals, government buildings, politicians' residences, public squares, railway stations, and along major roadways connecting cities in several locations, including Colombo, Galle, and Kandy, since March. Violence involving lethal weapons has occurred during demonstrations; significant clashes occurred between pro-and anti-government supporters May 9, mainly in Colombo, resulting in nine deaths and over 200 injuries. Protesters may engage in additional altercations with police and/or rival factions. Galle Face Green has been a focal point for protests in Colombo; other popular rally venues in the city include the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) office, Colombo Fort Magistrate Court, Fort Railway Station, the prime minister's office, and the Nelum Pokuna intersection. Trade unions have intermittently held nationwide strikes, which may prompt significant service and transport disruptions.

Security Measures
Authorities will probably maintain heightened security measures nationwide, especially in Colombo, over the coming days. An nationwide curfew lasted 12:00 July 13-05:00 July 14; recurrent and/or localized curfews are likely in the coming days, especially across the Western Province, including Colombo. Residents must stay home except for emergency reasons during curfews; police-issued movement passes or approved employment cards are typically required to exit homes for essential work. Officials could extend the state of public emergency or curfews in response to security assessments.

Localized transport disruptions and a heavy police presence are likely near any large gatherings that occur. Protests could turn violent quickly, as security forces are usually quick to resort to the use of force to disperse unruly gatherings; authorities may empower security personnel to open fire at individuals deemed to damage public property, violate any curfew orders, engage in illegal acts, or harm others. Controls on media, social media, and telecommunication services are possible if significant violence occurs.

Business and Travel Disruptions
Businesses in areas experiencing violent protests and/or heightened security measures could close temporarily as a precaution. Postal services to the US, Israel, and Netherlands have resumed as of July 20 after a brief suspension due to fuel shortages; additional disruptions are possible. Power outages and fuel shortages will likely continue interrupting business operations in the medium term, potentially prompting further disruptions and protests.

Various governments, such as Australia, Canada, France, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, and the UK, are advising against nonessential travel to Sri Lanka until further notice. Several countries are also cautioning their citizens in Sri Lanka to avoid demonstrations and plan for shortages of essential items. The US advises its citizens to reconsider travel due to fuel and medicine shortages. Other countries may adjust their travel risk assessments in the coming days. The flydubai (FZ) carrier has indefinitely suspended its flights to Sri Lanka; Etihad Airways (EY) officials have also announced flights to Sri Lanka will make refueling stops in India. Further flight schedule changes affecting additional air carriers are possible.

Context

Various groups have held protests in Sri Lanka in recent months to denounce worsening economic conditions and the government's response to the situation. A lack of foreign reserves to service external payments has caused an unprecedented economic crisis with worsening shortages of essential goods, such as food, fuel, and medications. Fuel shortages and power outages have, in turn, disrupted water supply, freight and passenger transport, and internet services. The country suspended foreign debt payments April 12, with USD 4 billion payments due in 2022. The government is in talks to obtain financial assistance from the IMF, marking the 17th time the nation has sought a bailout from the global lender since its independence.

Prime Minister Wickremesinghe was appointed early May after former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned due to violent protests. PM Wickremesinghe was supported by Rajapaksa's Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party that earlier lost its parliamentary majority after several coalition partners and lawmakers withdrew support. Wickremesinghe won the presidential elections July 20, and will head an interim government.

Advice

Confirm flight schedules, business and medical appointments, deliveries, road status, and transport reservations in advance. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Abide by any curfew orders. Avoid all protests due to the potential for violence. Do not attempt to cross protester-erected roadblocks; wait for police to clear them before proceeding. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Allow additional travel time in Colombo and other urban centers through at least July. Plan for long queues to obtain essential items; ensure contingency plans account for prevailing difficulties in accessing essential goods and services. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.