Ukraine: Russian forces continue military operations in east of country as of Aug. 11 /update 173

Event

Moscow is continuing its offensive in Ukraine as of Aug. 11. Significant territory has not changed hands for several days indicating both sides may have reached a temporary stalemate, likely as a result of degraded combat capabilities following months of conflict.

Russian offensive operations remain concentrated in the Donetsk Region; Ukrainian authorities ordered the mandatory evacuation of people from the region July 30. The tempo of activity has reduced along the Izyum-Slovyansk and Siversk axes; Russian forces continue to conduct limited ground attacks which are repulsed by Ukrainian defenders. The most intense fighting is occurring around Bakhmut where Russia is reportedly making slow gains from the northeast and southeast, particularly around Soledar, Avdiivka, and the surrounding villages - primarily Pisky. Russian units continue heavy shelling against Ukrainian-held settlements throughout this sector.

Multiple explosions occurred at Russia's Saky Air Base in occupied Crimea Aug. 9; reports suggest the attack destroyed several aircraft and military structures. Ukrainian officials have not explicitly claimed responsibility for the attack, but senior figures have indicated that the incident is part of a ramping up of the counteroffensive in the south of the country. Ukrainian forces continue to target bridges that are crucial for resupplying and transporting Russian forces in Kherson. The main Antonovskiy Bridge has been closed for several days as a result of Ukrainian shelling; artillery attacks on Aug. 10 have likely similarly damaged the nearest alternative bridge at Nova Kakhova. The counteroffensive still has not developed into significant ground attacks which has given Moscow time to reinforce the area with troops from the Donetsk area, though the attack on the air base in Crimea may temporarily reduce the tempo of Russian airstrikes in the region.

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is at the center of allegations between Ukraine and Russia after recent artillery strikes in the area, with the latest taking place on Aug. 11. Both Kyiv and Moscow blame each other for the attacks. The UN has called for no military strikes against the facility in addition to the implementation of a demilitarized zone around the site, which is in Russian-controlled territory. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has warned of “potentially catastrophic consequences” and is negotiating to allow an international monitoring team to visit.

Moscow’s forces continue to conduct shelling, missile attacks, and airstrikes both across the front line and in other parts of the country. Mykolaiv in particular has continued to receive intense aerial bombardment in recent days. Artillery and missile strikes regularly target central districts of the city damaging civilian infrastructure, including residential buildings, and causing injuries and deaths. Central districts in Kharkiv city are also subject to regular artillery and rocket bombardment.

Disruptions and Shortages

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended. Grain exports by sea have restarted from the ports of Odesa and Chernomorsk, following the UN-backed accord signed on July 22. Ukrainian authorities are organizing the vessels into convoys, in order to minimize the risk from sea mines. As of Aug. 11, a total of twelve vessels had left these ports, loaded with grain.

The government has extended Ukraine’s nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Moscow is continuing its offensive in the east as it attempts to gain complete control of the Donetsk Region, with the likely immediate goal of capturing Bakhmut. However, entrenched Ukrainian defenders and degraded Russian combat capacity have resulted in very limited progress towards these goals since July 16, when Moscow announced an end to the operational pause it ordered following the fall of Lysychansk. Ukraine has increasingly struck targets deep behind Russian lines with advanced Western weaponry in an attempt to degrade Russian forces, with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. Nonetheless, Kyiv's forces continue to come under significant pressure in the Donbas as Russia conducts intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian positions.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson is forcing Russia to divert resources to southern Ukraine which will likely come at a cost to its already limited offensive capability in the east. Kyiv's repeated targeting of the bridges around Kherson likely indicates that retaking the city is the primary objective of Kyiv's counteroffensive in the south. Damaging the bridges would cut off Russian troops holding the city leaving them vulnerable to a ground offensive. Information regarding Ukrainian advances along the frontline in this region is tightly controlled but reports suggest limited progress in recent weeks. Kyiv could ramp up offensive activity in this sector at short notice, possibly forcing Moscow to switch from an offensive to a defensive footing while this threat persists.

The territorial situation elsewhere has remained fairly static for some time. Russian operations north of Kharkiv continue, with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning a number of Ukrainian forces in the region.

As the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider exiting these areas if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of the possibility of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service