Ukraine: Ukrainian forces maintaining multiple attacks on Russian positions in the Kherson Region as of Sept. 6 /update 177

Event

Ukrainian forces are continuing offensive operations in the Kherson Region, Sept. 6, including long-range strikes and ground assaults on Russian positions. Ukrainian authorities maintain a high degree of operational security over the nature and progress of this offensive. However, reports suggest that they are avoiding attritional ground attacks and instead are prioritizing precision strikes against Russian logistics and command centers and employing raiding tactics along the lines of engagement. Ukrainian forces confirm they have recaptured Vysokopillya and Olhyne and are attacking Russian positions in the areas of Kostromka and Bezimenne. Russian strikes continue in and around Mykolaiv. Ukrainian air defenses outside the city shot down Russian cruise missiles on Sept. 6; no damage was reported. Russian artillery strikes were reported on Sept. 5-6 in the settlements of Shyroke, Yavkyne, and Bereznehuvate in the wider Mykolaiv Region's Bashtan District.

In the east of Ukraine, Russian forces continue limited ground assaults and artillery bombardment of Ukrainian positions and settlements in the Kharkiv and Donetsk regions, although the average number of shellings has reduced recently after reaching a peak in mid-August. In the Donetsk Region, Russian troops have conducted offensive operations in the areas of Avdiivka, from the vicinity of Donetsk Airport (DOK) towards Vodyane and near Nevelske, all of which were countered by Ukrainian defenses.

The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant remains a focus of international attention with an ongoing inspection by IAEA officials. Both Russia and Ukraine blame each other for continued shelling in the vicinity; the plant has lost its main connection to the power grid and is relying on a reserve connection. The IAEA aims to issue a report on the state and operation of the plant in the week commencing Sept. 12.

The Kharkiv Region is the second most shelled area after the Donetsk Region; much of the Russian artillery fire comes from inside Russia’s borders. There have been no significant territorial changes in the last week and are not expected in the near future as forces on both sides are prioritized elsewhere. Indiscriminate shelling of Kharkiv city and outlying districts remains likely. Moscow's forces also continue to conduct missile attacks and airstrikes across other parts of the country.

Disruptions and Shortages
As of Sept. 4, 87 vessels have left the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Chornomorsk, and Yuzhne, carrying over two million metric tons of grains and other foodstuffs under the terms of the “Black Sea Initiative.” No security incidents have been reported. Separately, the southwestern ports of Izmail, Reni, and Kiliia, on the Danube river, have achieved significant increases in trade, complementing the exports covered under the international accord. No further damage to ships has been reported since Aug. 5, and there have been no reports of sea mines since Aug. 11.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended.

The government has extended Ukraine's nationwide martial law decree until Nov. 21. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect from 23:00-05:00. Nightly curfews are also in place in Mykolaiv from 22:00-06:00 and Zaporizhzhia Region from 22:00-05:00; Additionally, the nightly curfew in Kharkiv Region is in effect from 19:00-07:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across the country. Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Moscow is maintaining offensive pressure in the east as it attempts to gain complete control of the Donetsk Region, with the likely immediate goal of capturing Bakhmut. The tempo of these operations has reduced in recent weeks, as measured in shelling density, ground force manoeuvers, and in territorial gains. Russian forces have not captured a significant settlement since the fall of Lysychansk on July 3, and some more capable Russian forces have been redeployed to the Kherson Region to defend against Ukrainian offensive operations there. This, in turn, has enabled Kyiv to launch surprise counterattacks against Russian positions. The overall situation is an effective stalemate, with neither side having the operational superiority to make gains.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kherson is continuing. Without air superiority, and after Moscow increased its troop numbers in defensive positions, Kyiv is avoiding large-scale ground attacks. Instead, it is capitalizing on Western arms such as HIMARs to strike command posts, ammunition depots, and critical bridges across the River Dneiper, with the aim of causing significant logistical problems for the Kremlin. This will also likely have a significant effect on the morale of Russian troops, as their routes for any potential retreat are cut off. Carefully targeted strikes against Russian military facilities in Crimea have also exposed Russian defensive weaknesses there. Partisan activity continues to disrupt Russian administrations in occupied areas, including targeted assassinations of Russian-appointed officials, particularly in the Zaporizhzhia Region.

Russian operations in the Kharkiv Region continue with the aim of securing the border region and supply lines. Russian artillery and rocket fire into the Sumy Region from Russia's Kursk Oblast has also continued, with the likely aim of pinning several Ukrainian forces in the region.

As the conflict remains primarily concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites nationwide.

Advice

Avoid travel to active conflict zones in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions of Ukraine; consider leaving these areas by available ground transport if safe to do so. Exercise extreme caution if operating anywhere in Ukraine. You should shelter in place if there is fighting or airstrikes in the area. Stay away from windows and exterior walls if officials report incoming rocket or artillery fire. Follow the instructions of local security personnel, especially when instructed to seek refuge in air raid shelters. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, avoid off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance. In areas previously occupied by Russian forces, be aware of the possibility of booby traps.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service