Iran: Violent protests likely to continue nationwide through at least end September /update 1

Event

Anti-government demonstrations will likely persist nationwide through at least end September in response to the death of a 22-year-old woman - Mahsa Amini - in police custody. Unconfirmed reports suggest that clashes between protesters and security forces have killed at least three people and wounded approximately 220 others. The protests have spread to multiple cities including, Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad, and Shiraz, with the largest and most violent taking place in Kurdistan Province, where Amini was from.

Actions by activists will probably grow in scale and intensity unless authorities hold the individuals responsible for Amini's death accountable. Prominent rally sites include major public squares, city centers, and near government buildings. Transport disruptions are likely near any demonstrations that materialize. Civil society associations, labor organizations, and political groups could potentially enhance the impact of protests by staging labor strikes.

Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture in major cities during this period. Security forces may respond forcefully, including using tear gas, water cannon, and baton charges, to any instances of civil unrest, especially if participants are overly disruptive or fail to heed orders to disperse. Officials could shut down internet service in some areas of the country with high protest activity to prevent activists from mobilizing.

Context

Amini died Sept. 16 after she was detained by Iran's morality police for allegedly violating the country's dress code and hijab rules Sept. 13. Authorities claim Amini had a stroke and heart attack while in detention. Her family, meanwhile, claims that Amini was healthy and did not suffer from any pre-existing medical conditions. Authorities say it will take at least three weeks to identify Amini's cause of death.

Advice

Avoid all large gatherings and areas where security forces have deployed. Plan for ground transport disruptions and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities, especially near likely protest locations such as public squares and government buildings. Heed the instructions of security personnel. If violence breaks out nearby, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure, non-government building.