Philippine Sea: Super Typhoon Noru tracking westward over the Philippine Sea as of evening Sept. 25 /update 4

Event

Super Typhoon Noru, named Karding in the Philippines, has intensified significantly and is tracking westward over the Philippine Sea as of the evening of Sept. 25. As of 17:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 167 km (104 miles) east-northeast of Manila.

Forecast models indicate that the storm system will pass just north of Polillo Islands in the Philippines and make landfall over Quezon Province, very near the border with Aurora Province, the evening of Sept. 25, before weakening into a typhoon as it tracks over the Central Luzon Region through Sept. 25. The storm will weaken temporarily as it enters the South China Sea and likely strengthen again early Sept. 27 as it tracks westward towards central Vietnam. Noru is likely to continue strengthening and make landfall over Quang Ngai or Quang Nam provinces in Vietnam late Sept. 27 before weakening rapidly as it tracks westward across central Vietnam, southern Laos, and eastern Thailand, dissipating over eastern Phetchabun Province, Thailand the afternoon of Sept. 30. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of the evening of Sept. 25, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following warnings:

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 5: Polillo Islands as well as far northern Quezon, far southern Aurora, far southern Nueva Ecija, eastern Pampanga, eastern and central Bulacan, and far northern Rizal provinces

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 4: Calaguas Islands as well as central and southern Nueva Ecija, northern Metro Manila, Tarlac, the rest of Pampanga, the rest of Bulacan, Zambales, northern Bataan, southern Pangasinan, and far northern Laguna provinces

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3: central Aurora, southeastern Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Nueva Ecija, the rest of Bataan, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Metro Manila, the rest of Rizal, northern and central Laguna, northern and central Cavite, the rest of northern Quezon, and northern Camarines Norte provinces

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2: southern Isabela, Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, the rest of Aurora, the rest of Cavite, Batangas, the rest of Laguna, central Quezon, the rest of Camarines Norte, northern Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes provinces

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1: the rest of Luzon

Authorities have warned of heavy to intense rainfall over Metro Manila, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Aurora, northern Quezon, including Polillo Islands, and Rizal provinces as well as moderate to heavy rainfall over Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Benguet, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Pangasinan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, central Quezon, Occidental Mindoro, and Camarines Norte provinces through early Sept. 26. Light to moderate rain is likely over Oriental Mindoro and Marinduque provinces and the rest of Calabarzon and Bicol Region.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a blue (lowest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy rainfall is forecast over the coast of northeastern Fujian Province as well as the Xisha, Zhongsha, Nansha, and Huangyan islands. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories in the coming days as the storm approaches.

Authorities in the Philippines have preemptively evacuated 336 people from the Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon regions. Quezon City has also evacuated residents in flood-prone areas. Authorities have canceled classes and work across most of Luzon Sept. 26.

The landslide-prone Kennon Road in Benguet Province was closed in advance of the storm. As of Sept. 25, at least 36 flights at Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL) have been canceled; further flight cancellations are likely as the storm approaches and weather conditions deteriorate. The Paranaque Integrated Terminal Exchange (PITX) has canceled all services in Mindoro and Visayas as well as Davao City, Tiwi Municipality in Albay Province, and Infanta Municipality in Quezon Province.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)