Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Ian tracking north-northeastward Sept. 28 /update 7

Event

Hurricane Ian is tracking north-northeastward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sept. 28 and has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane. As of 11:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 75 km (45 miles) west-northwest of Naples, Florida.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall as a Category 4 hurricane over Charlotte County near Punta Gorda in the coming hours. Ian is expected to weaken after landfall as it tracks northeastward across central Florida and exits into the North Atlantic Ocean late Sept. 29. Ian is subsequently forecast to track generally northwards in the western North Atlantic Ocean and make another landfall as a tropical storm close to the Georgia-South Carolina border Sept. 30, before tracking north-northwestward over western South Carolina and dissipating over western North Carolina early Oct. 2. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Sept. 28, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay; Dry Tortugas; Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas; Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands in the Bahamas. In Florida, Indian Pass to the Anclote River; all of the Florida Keys; Flamingo to Sebastian Inlet; Flagler/Volusia County Line to Little River Inlet; Flamingo to Chokoloskee; Lake Okeechobee; Florida Bay.

• Storm Surge Warning: Suwanee River southward to Flamingo; Tampa Bay; Lower Florida Keys from Big Pine Key westward to Key West; Dry Tortugas; Flagler/Volusia Line to the mouth of the South Santee River; St. Johns River.

• Hurricane Watch: Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River; Lake Okeechobee.

• Storm Surge Watch: Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to east of Big Pine Key; Florida Bay.

The US National Weather Service has issued tornado watches and warnings across central and southern Florida through at least Sept. 28. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has warned of a "High Risk" (the highest on a four-tier scale) of excessive rainfall over central and south-central areas of the Florida Peninsula through early Sept. 29 and a "Moderate Risk" over most of the rest of the Florida Peninsula. The risk of excessive rainfall outlook shifts slightly to the northeast, still remaining predominantly over Florida, Sept. 29-30, before shifting further northeast to eastern Georgia and South Carolina Sept. 30-Oct. 1. Authorities issued an emergency declaration for Florida Sept. 24 and for Georgia Sept. 27 in advance of the storm. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict rainfall accumulations of 15-20 cm (6-8 inches) over the Florida Keys and southern Florida; 30-46 cm (12-18 inches) in central and northeast Florida; and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) in eastern Georgia and coastal South Carolina.

Widespread catastrophic flash, river, and urban flooding is likely across central Florida, while widespread considerable flash, river, and urban flooding is forecast across portions of southern Florida through Sept. 28 and northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina Sept. 29-Oct. 2. Limited flash, urban, and river flooding is possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic Sept. 30-Oct. 2. Tornadoes are possible in parts of southern and central Florida through Sept. 28, especially across east-central Florida.

Storm surge could raise water levels above normal tide levels by 3.7-5.5 meters (12-18 feet) from Engelwood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor, and between 0.3-3.7 meters (1-12 feet) across many other parts of the Florida coast. Swells generated by the storm system are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, and the west coast of Florida; they are forecast to spread along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina late Sept. 28-29.

Authorities evacuated over 50,000 people from Pinar del Rio Province in western Cuba to 55 shelters across the province as the storm passed over the western parts of the country Sept. 27. All of Cuba was left without power due to the storm; authorities have begun to restore power to some areas early Sept. 28. Authorities have reported two fatalities associated with the storm and widespread damage has been reported in Pinar del Rio. Damage assessments are ongoing as of Sept. 28, and it will likely take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is ascertained.

Authorities in Florida have issued mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders for around 2.5 million people across parts of Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Glades, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Putnam, Sarasota, and St. Johns counties, including the cities of Clearwater, St. Petersburg, and Tampa. Authorities have established around 176 shelters across the state to provide temporary accommodations for displaced residents. Officials have suspended SunRail corridor services in central Florida. Port Tampa Bay, Port St. Pete, Seaport Manatee, Port of Key West, and Port Canaveral are closed, while Port of Ft. Pierce and Port of Palm Beach are open with restrictions. Jacksonville Port closed at 12:00 Sept. 28. Several airports in south and central Florida, including Key West International Airport (EYW), Sarasota Bradenton International Airport (SRQ), Southwest Florida International Airport (RSW), Tampa International (TPA), and St. Pete–Clearwater International (PIE) airports have suspended operations as of Sept. 28. Melbourne Orlando International Airport (MLB) will close at 14:00 Sept. 28, and around 3,500 flights across the US predominantly into or out of Florida have been canceled Sept. 28-29. Oil companies in the Gulf of Mexico have halted operations at some facilities. The cities of Punta Gorda and Cape Coral have suspended all emergency services, and Clearwater will do the same once sustained winds exceed 72 kph (45 mph). Reports indicate more than 100,000 people across Florida are already without power as of the early afternoon of Sept. 28.

A tornado touched down in Kings Point, Florida, west of Delray Beach late Sept. 27, resulting in two people hospitalized and 35 others displaced. Several cars and structures have been damaged. Another tornado has damaged several aircraft and hangars at North Perry Airport (HWO). The facility is temporarily closed as officials assess the damage.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Cuban Meteorological Institute
US National Weather Service