US: Hurricane Ian tracking north-northeastward Sept. 28 /update 8

Event

Hurricane Ian has weakened and is tracking north-northeastward over Central Florida late Sept. 28 following landfall near the city of Fort Myers the afternoon of Sept. 28. As of 23:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 110 km (70 miles) south of Orlando, Florida.

Forecast models indicate the system will exit into the North Atlantic Ocean the afternoon of Sept. 29 before tracking generally northwards and making another landfall as a tropical storm over southern South Carolina the afternoon of Sept. 30. Ian is likely to weaken rapidly as it tracks north-northwestward over South Carolina and western North Carolina before dissipating over western Virginia late Oct. 1. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Sept. 28, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Chokoloskee to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay; Dry Tortugas; Sebastian Inlet to Flagler/Volusia County Line.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Indian Pass to the Anclote River; Boca Raton to Sebastian Inlet; Flagler/Volusia County Line to Surf City; Flamingo to Chokoloskee; Lake Okeechobee; Bimini and Grand Bahama Islands.

• Storm Surge Warning: Suwanee River southward to Flamingo; Tampa Bay; Flagler/Volusia County Line to the mouth of the South Santee River; St. Johns River.

• Hurricane Watch: Flagler/Volusia County Line to the South Santee River.

• Tropical Storm Watch: north of Surf City to Cape Lookout.

• Storm Surge Watch: north of South Santee River to Little River Inlet.

The US National Weather Service has issued tornado watches and warnings across central and southern Florida through at least early Sept. 29. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has warned of a "High Risk" (the highest on a four-tier scale) of excessive rainfall over the central Florida Peninsula through early Sept. 29 and over much of northeastern Florida Sept. 29. A "Moderate Risk" of excessive rainfall is in place from southeastern Georgia into central Florida Sept. 29 and from southeastern Georgia into central South Carolina Sept. 30. Authorities issued an emergency declaration for Florida Sept. 24, for Georgia Sept. 27, and for North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia Sept. 28. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict rainfall accumulations of 30-51 cm (12-20 inches) in Central and Northeast Florida; 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over coastal Georgia and Low Country of South Carolina; and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) in upstate and central South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Virginia.

Widespread, life-threatening catastrophic flash and urban flooding, with major to record flooding along rivers, is likely to continue across central Florida. Widespread considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is forecast across portions of northeast Florida, southeastern Georgia, and eastern South Carolina Sept. 29-Oct. 2. Locally considerable flash, urban, and river flooding is possible Oct. 1-2 across portions of the southern Appalachians with limited flooding possible across portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Tornadoes are possible in parts of east-central and northeast Florida through early Sept. 29 and across the coastal Carolinas Sept. 30.

Storm surge could raise water levels above normal tide levels by 2.4-3 meters (8-10 feet) from Engelwood to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor, and between 0.3-2.4 meters (1-8 feet) across many other parts of the Florida coast. Swells generated by the storm system are affecting the northern coast of Cuba, the northeastern coast of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, and the west coast of Florida; they are forecast to spread along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina late Sept. 28-29.

Authorities evacuated over 50,000 people from Pinar del Rio Province in western Cuba to 55 shelters across the province as the storm passed over the western parts of the country Sept. 27. All of Cuba was left without power due to the storm; authorities have begun to restore power to some areas Sept. 28. Authorities have reported two fatalities associated with the storm and widespread damage has been reported in Pinar del Rio. The main hospital in Pinar del Rio City is heavily damaged. The storm destroyed at least five structures in Havana and damaged at least 68 other buildings. Damage assessments are ongoing as of Sept. 28, and it will likely take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is ascertained.

Authorities in Florida have issued mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders for around 2.5 million people across parts of Alachua, Charlotte, Citrus, Clay, Collier, Flagler, Franklin, Gilchrist, Glades, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lee, Levy, Manatee, Nassau, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Putnam, Sarasota, Seminole, and St. Johns counties. Authorities have established around 176 shelters across the state to provide temporary accommodations for displaced residents.

Officials in Florida have advised residents to stay indoors and off the roads. Several bridges in Manatee, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties are closed while tolls are suspended on roadways in Central Florida. Officials have suspended SunRail corridor services in central Florida. Port Tampa Bay, Port of St. Petersburg, Seaport Manatee, Port of Key West, Port of Fort Pierce, Port of Palm Beach, Jacksonville Port, and Port Canaveral are closed. Amtrak services are canceled south of Jacksonville through Sept. 29 while regional rail services including Florida Central, Florida Midland, Florida Northern, and Port Manatee Railroads are also suspended. Several airports in south and central Florida, including Sarasota Bradenton International (SRQ), Southwest Florida International (RSW), Tampa International (TPA), Melbourne Orlando International (MLB), Orlando Sanford International (SFB), and St. Pete–Clearwater International (PIE) airports have suspended operations as of late Sept. 28. Key West International Airport (EYW) is closed but is scheduled to resume operations 07:00 Sept. 29. More than 4,000 flights across the US predominantly into or out of Florida have been canceled Sept. 28-29. Oil companies in the Gulf of Mexico have halted operations at some facilities. Reports indicate more than 1,900,000 people across Florida are without power as of late Sept. 28. Authorities have declared a curfew in Charlotte, Flagler, Lee, Okeechobee, and Volusia counties due to safety concerns. The City of Naples has also issued an emergency citywide curfew effective until further notice. Boil water notices are in place in Lee and Pasco counties.

A tornado touched down in Kings Point, Florida, west of Delray Beach late Sept. 27, resulting in two people hospitalized and 35 others displaced. Several cars and structures have been damaged. Another tornado has damaged several aircraft and hangars at North Perry Airport (HWO). The facility is temporarily closed as officials assess the damage. Heavy flooding has been reported in Naples in southwestern Florida.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Cuban Meteorological Institute
US National Weather Service