01 Oct 2022 | 04:38 AM UTC
US: Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian tracking northward over central North Carolina late Sept. 30 /update 12
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian tracking northward over central North Carolina, US, late Sept. 30. Forecast to dissipate by early Oct. 2.
Event
Post-Tropical Cyclone Ian is tracking northward over central North Carolina late Sept. 30. As of 23:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 95 km (60 miles) south-southeast of Greensboro, North Carolina. Forecast models indicate the system will weaken further as it continues northward over central North Carolina and Virginia states, likely dissipating by early Oct. 2.
As of late Sept. 30, authorities have lifted all Tropical Storm and Storm Surge warnings and related watches. Heavy rain and gusty winds will probably persist across parts of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic states through Oct. 1.
The US National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has warned of a "Moderate Risk" (the second highest level on a four-tier scale) of excessive rainfall for portions of northern North Carolina and southern Virginia through early Oct. 1. Slight and Marginal risks of excessive rainfall persist over parts of the Appalachian mountains and Mid-Atlantic coast from New Jersey to southern Massachusetts through early Oct. 2. Authorities have issued emergency declarations for Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia, and a major disaster for Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Hardee, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Pinellas, and Sarasota counties in Florida, Sept. 29.
Forecast models indicate total rainfall accumulations of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) with localized maximums of 20 cm (8 inches) across parts of North Carolina, West Virginia, and the southern Mid-Atlantic states. Major to record river flooding will continue across central Florida through at least Oct. 3. Considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river flooding is possible across portions of North and South Carolina and southern Virginia through early Oct. 1. Limited flooding is possible across parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic Oct. 1-2. Tornadoes are possible across parts of far southeast Virginia and the southern Delmarva Peninsula through early Oct. 1. Swells from the storm system are affecting the east coast of Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, and the northwestern Bahamas. They are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Widespread disruptions are ongoing across parts of the Florida Peninsula after Ian made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane near Fort Myers the afternoon Sept. 28 and tracked across the center of the Peninsula through Sept. 29 before exiting into the North Atlantic Ocean. As of Sept. 30, authorities confirmed up to 27 fatalities, with approximately thousands of others unaccounted for. The death toll will likely rise over the coming days as search and rescue operations progress. Reports indicate severe flooding and wind damage in Fort Myers, Naples, Venice, and other towns and cities close to where the storm came ashore. Flooding is also ongoing across many other inland parts of the state due to heavy rainfall. The collapse of the Sanibel Causeway late Sept. 28 has cut off ground transport to Sanibel Island in Lee County. Around 2 million customers across Florida remain without power as of Sept. 30. Boil water notices are in place in Lee and Pasco counties due to possibly contaminated water supplies amid the ongoing flooding. Damage assessments are continuing, and it may take some time before the full extent of the storm's impact is clear.
Authorities have lifted evacuation orders and curfews in many areas. Airports, ports, and other services across Florida are beginning to resume operations Sept. 30 following closures during the passing of the storm. However, disruptions will probably persist in locations heavily impacted by the system in the coming weeks and months. Many services may be unable to resume regular operations due to damages, flooding, power outages, and other storm-related issues. Charleston International Airport (CHS) in South Carolina closed ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Ian and will resume operations at 11:00 Oct. 1. Hundreds of flights have been canceled at Myrtle Beach International Airport (MYR) in South Carolina and Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT) in North Carolina through Sept. 30. Lingering flight delays are likely in the coming days as airlines work to clear passenger backlogs.
Further inclement weather could trigger additional localized business, transport, and utility disruptions in the coming days. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
