Iran: Nationwide demonstrations and strikes likely to continue into late October /update 4

Event

Demonstrations and labor strikes demanding gender equality as well as social and economic reforms will likely continue across Iran into at least late October. The current series of protests erupted in reaction to the Sept. 16 death of an Iranian Kurdish woman while she was in police custody for an alleged violation of the nation's hijab laws. Civil unrest has occurred in many parts of the country, including major cities such as Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad, Karaj, Tabriz, Ahvaz, and Shiraz. The government has also imposed internet restrictions in an effort to hamper activists' ability to mobilize support.

As of Oct. 1, labor organizations, including teachers, have begun a series of strikes to demand justice and to demonstrate solidarity with the protesters. The Council of Contract Oil Workers has also threatened to launch work stoppages unless authorities end their crackdown on the protest movement and address violence against women and declining standards of living. Additionally, university students have launched a fresh wave of demonstrations in Tehran and elsewhere in the country.

Moreover, Iran's Kurdish region has launched a general strike. Stores and businesses in 15 Kurdish cities, including Sanandaj, Mahabad, Piranshahr, and Bukan, have shut down operations to protest the nation's bombing of dissident groups in Iraqi Kurdistan. Tehran has accused Kurdish groups in Iraq of fomenting the ongoing demonstrations in Iran.

Authorities continue to crack down on the demonstrators and are employing live ammunition, tear gas, and water cannon to disperse the protesters. Iran's state media has stated that 41 people have been killed in clashes with security forces, although actual casualty figures are likely significantly higher. Authorities have also arrested hundreds of people and continue to detain activists in an attempt to subdue the civil unrest. Against this backdrop, Iran's security agencies could also increase their surveillance and harassment of foreign visitors to the country.

Authorities almost certainly maintain a heightened security posture in major cities until the protests abate. Security forces may respond forcefully - including using tear gas, water cannon, and baton charges - to any instances of civil unrest, especially if participants are overly disruptive or fail to heed orders to disperse. Officials may tighten internet service restrictions in areas of the country with high levels of protest activity over the coming days.

Context

The protests initially broke out in mid-September in direct response to the death of Mahsa Amini while in the custody of Iran's Gasht-e-Ershad or morality police; Amini was charged with violating the nation's laws requiring women to wear hijabs and head scarfs. However, the movement has essentially evolved into a national revolt against the Iranian government and its security apparatus, with Amini's death becoming a rallying cry for millions of Iranians who are demanding that authorities abolish the Gasht-e-Ershad, among other reforms.

Since the start of the protest campaign, the white-and-green vehicles used by the morality police have reportedly stopped patrolling the streets of Tehran. Still, it remains to be seen if authorities will make further concessions in order to quell the unrest.

Advice

Avoid all large gatherings and areas where security forces have deployed. Plan for ground transport disruptions and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities, especially near likely protest locations such as public squares and government buildings. Heed the instructions of security personnel. If violence breaks out nearby, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building.