Bay of Campeche: Tropical Storm Karl tracking south-southeastward as of Oct. 13 /update 2

Event

Tropical Storm Karl is tracking south-southeastward in the Bay of Campeche Oct. 13. As of 10:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 390 km (245 miles) north of Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz State, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken slightly as it continues to track south-southeastward and then turns to track south-southwestward over the Bay of Campeche Oct. 13-14. The system is then expected to turn to track southwestward late Oct. 14 and make landfall as a tropical storm close to the border between Veracruz and Tabasco states early Oct. 15. The system will then weaken rapidly as it continues to track southwestward over eastern Veracruz and dissipate over eastern Oaxaca State late Oct. 15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of Oct. 12, authorities had issued a tropical storm warning from Alvarado in Veracruz State along the coast to Ciudad del Carmen in Campeche State. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will produce rainfall totals of 7.5-17.5 cm (3-7 inches), with localized maximum rainfall totals of up to 30 cm (12 inches), over parts of Verzazruz, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and northern Oaxaca states Oct. 14-15. Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) has also warned of heavy rainfall over parts of Campeche, Puebla, and Yucatan states, as well as isolated showers over parts of central Mexico. Flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in areas of higher terrain, are possible in affected areas. Tropical storm-strength winds may affect areas along Mexico's coast within the tropical storm warning area beginning late Oct. 14. Furthermore, swells are likely to affect portions of the Mexican coast over the coming days, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

National Hurricane Center
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)