Philippines: Tropical Depression 23 tracking northwestward in Philippine Sea toward northern Luzon Island Oct. 15

Event

Tropical Depression 23 (Neneng) is tracking west-northwestward over the Philippine Sea Oct. 15. As of 08:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 637 km (395 miles) east of Laoag City, Philippines. Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a Tropical Storm as it moves westwards the evening of Oct. 15 and will make a close approach to northern Luzon Island early Oct. 16. The storm is expected to strengthen further as it turns southwestward into the north of the South China Sea from Oct. 17, and will gradually weaken from Oct. 19. No further landfalls are forecast. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the next few days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA) have issued a Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 1 alert (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) due to TD 23 (named tropical depression Neneng by PAGASA) in Batanes, Cagayan including Apayao, Babuyan Islands, the northern regions of Abra and Isabela, and Ilocos Norte. PAGASA has also issued a heavy rainfall advisory in Batanes and Cagayan, including Babuyan Islands; as well as moderate to heavy rainfall warnings over Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, and Ilocos Norte Oct. 15. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains are expected over the northern Isabela and the rest of Ilocos Region and Cordillera Administrative Region. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding and landslides in parts of the affected areas.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Administration (PAGASA)