31 Oct 2022 | 04:59 AM UTC
Caribbean Sea: Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea as of late Oct. 30
Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 tracking westward in Caribbean Sea late Oct. 30. Landfall likely over Belize late Nov. 2.
Event
Potential Tropical Cyclone 15 is tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea late Oct. 30. As of 23:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 315 km (185 miles) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a category 1 hurricane as it tracks generally westward, passing south of Jamaica Oct. 31 and south of the Cayman Islands early Nov. 1 before making landfall over Belize late Nov. 2. After landfall, the storm is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks west-southwest across Belize and northern Guatemala through late Nov. 3. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of late Oct. 30, authorities have issued the following tropical storm warnings and watches:
Tropical Storm Watch
Jamaica
Grand Cayman Island
Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.
Forecast models indicate rainfall of 5 cm (2 inches) over Jamaica and 2.5 cm (1 inch) over portions of the US Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Cayman Islands, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, and Belize through the evening of Nov. 2. The rainfall could result in flash flooding. Swells generated by the storm are likely to affect Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the coming days. The swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
